Demographic aging trends in eu countries and Ukraine

У статті проведено аналіз тенденцій розвитку процесу демографічного старіння у країнах Європейського Союзу та Україні на основі розрахунку значень демографічного старіння (коефіцієнт старіння, індекс старіння, демографічне навантаження за рахунок людей похилого віку, вік старіння). Отримані дані дозволяють зробити висновок про зближення більшості значень старіння населення в ЄС загалом, а також виділити кілька груп країн із однаковими значеннями старіння та демографічними тенденціями. У результаті дослідження автори виділили 5 груп країн, які демонструють: 1) найвищі темпи старіння та старіння населення; 2) середні значення індексу та коефіцієнта старіння, однак, демонструють високі темпи зростання старіння населення та демографічного навантаження; 3) середні значення старіння, але знижені темпи зростання старіючого населення; 4) середні значення старіння; 5) найменші темпи та величини старіння населення. Автори прогнозували зміни вікової структури населення ЄС до 2100 року, які показали, що у майбутньому частка людей віком 65+ буде лише зростати, а це вимагатиме певних змін у соціальному житті та економіці досліджуваних країн. Демографічна ситуація, що склалася у досліджуваному регіоні, потребує постійного моніторингу та врахування при стратегічному плануванні на всіх рівнях, а також удосконалення соціальної політики країн ЄС щодо людей похилого віку.

*calculated by the authors based on data from Eurostat and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine

The reasons for the increase in the share of elderly people can be determined as follows:

- increasing the level of longevity, which has been characteristic for many recent decades;

- a consistently low level of fertility, while the smaller number of children born leads to a decrease in the share of young people in the total population;

- progressive aging of the oldest population, as the relative share of elderly people is growing faster than any other age segment of the EU-27 population.

The analysis of Table 1 allows us to distinguish groups of countries according to the gradation of the value of the population aging coefficient.

A group of countries with the highest aging coefficient (over 22.0%) is clearly distinguished: Germany (22.1%), Croatia (22.5%), Greece (22.7%), Finland (23.1%), Portugal (23.7%), Italy with the absolute maximum (23.8 %).

The lowest value of aging coefficient (less than 17.0%) was found in the following countries: Cyprus (16.5%), Ireland (15.0%), Luxembourg with an absolute minimum (14.8%). Ukraine is included in this group of countries with a value of 16.7%. This is 4.4% less than the average value of aging coefficient in the EU (21.1%).

The group of countries with an aging index above 145.0 includes: Croatia (148.7), Bulgaria (150.1), Greece (157.6), Germany (160.4), Portugal (165.3) and Italy with a maximum of 180.4.

The lowest values of the aging index (less than 105.0) are observed in the countries: Cyprus (103.4), Luxembourg (92.7), Ireland with a minimum value of 73.5.

A certain interdependence is observed between the aging coefficient and the aging index. In particular, these values are the highest in Greece, Italy, Germany, Portugal, Croatia, and the lowest in Ireland, Cyprus and Luxembourg.

The highest values of the demographic berden due to elderly people (over 345.0) are characteristic of the following countries: Germany (346.6), Croatia (355.7), Greece (356.2), Finland (367.6), Portugal (372.5), Italy (374.8).

Analyzing the value of the share of elderly people in the general structure of the population in the EU countries, it is worth noting that in each of them this value has been growing since 2011. However, there was a difference in the rates of population aging. Thus, we can single out a group of countries with the highest population aging rates during the studied period (over 0.35). It includes the following countries: France (0.36), Netherlands (0.37), Slovenia (0.38), Croatia (0.4), Czechia (0.42), Portugal (0.42), Finland has the highest value (0.47).

The lowest aging rates (below 0.21) were recorded in: Belgium (0.2), Lithuania (0.18), Austria (0.15), Sweden (0.15), Germany (0.12), Luxembourg with an absolute minimum (0.08). Ukraine also belongs to this group of countries in values of population aging rates (0.18). And the average value of population aging rates in EU countries is 0.28.

According to the value of the share of elderly people in the EU countries in 2022, it is possible to distinguish a group of countries with the maximum share of people of this age group in the population structure (over 22.0%): Germany (22.1%), since 2011 this indicator has increased by 1.4%, Croatia ( 22.5%), since 2011 this value has increased by 4.8%, Greece (22.7%), since 2011 this value has increased by 3.4%, Portugal (23.7%), since 2011 this value has increased by 5%, Italy with an absolute maximum (23.8%), since 2011 this value has increased by 3.3%.

In 2011, this group of countries also included Bulgaria and Sweden. At the same time, a group of countries stands out, which in 2011 had one of the lowest values of the share of elderly people in the population structure, and by 2022 they have moved into the group of countries with the highest values: Finland (the value increased from 17.5% to 23.1%), Croatia (the value increased from 17.7% to 22.5%), Poland (the value increased from 13.6% to 19.1%).

The minimum share of elderly people (less than 17.5%) in EU countries was recorded in: Slovakia (17.4%), since 2011 this value has increased by 4.8%, Cyprus (16.5%), since 2011 this value has increased by 3.8%, Ireland (15.0%), since 2011 this value has increased by 3.5%, Luxembourg with an absolute minimum (14.8%), since 2011 this value has increased by 0.9%. Ukraine also belongs to this category of countries. In this country, the share of elderly people is 17.5%, which is 2.2% more than in 2011.

The study of the values of the demographic burden due to elderly people on the working population revealed that in all EU countries, without exception, they have been increasing over the past 5 years (2018-2022). However, the rates of this growth differed significantly. The highest growth rates of the demographic burden due to the elderly population on the working-age population (over 7.0) were observed in: Slovakia (7.32), Poland (7.94), Portugal (7.96), Croatia with the absolute maximum (9.68). This could be caused by a significant outflow of young people from these countries to work and study in EU countries with greater economic development, military conflicts in some of these countries, etc. The lowest rates of growth of the demographic burden due to elderly people per working-age population (less than 2.0) were recorded in: Sweden (1.52), Luxembourg (1.36), Lithuania (1.22), Malta with an absolute minimum (1.08). The same group of countries includes Ukraine with a growth rate of the demographic burden due to the elderly on the working-age population of 1.7.

The following countries show the highest growth rates of the demographic burden due to the elderly on the working-age population from 2018 to 2022: Slovakia from 225.4% to 254.7% (increase by 29.3%o), Poland from 252.9%o to 292.6% (increase by 39.7%), Portugal from 332.6% to 372.4% (increase by 39.8%), Croatia from 307.3% to 355.7% (increase by 48.4%).

The lowest growth rates of demographic burden during the studied period were observed in the following countries: in Sweden from 317.5% to 323.6% (increase by 6.1%), in Luxembourg from 205.9% to 212.7% (increase by 6.8%), in Lithuania from 300.6% to 306.7 % (increase by 6.1%), in Malta from 279.8% to 285.2% (increase by 5.4%). In Ukraine, the value of the demographic burden due to elderly people on the working-age population in 2018 was 258.2%, and in 2022 it was 261.6% (an increase of 3.4%).

The index of the depth of aging, which is defined as the share of people over the age of 80 in relation to the population aged 65 and older, differs significantly in different EU countries (Fig. 1). This value is highest in Greece (32%), Italy (32%), Germany (31%), Spain (30%). This value is the lowest in Slovakia (20%), the Czech Republic (21%), Hungary, Cyprus and Bulgaria (22% in each of these countries).

Unlike most EU countries, Ukraine also has a low “depth of aging” (Fig. 1). An increase in life expectancy in general leads to an increase in the depth of aging. However, in such a case, the dynamics in Ukraine may be complicated by the peculiarities of the age-sex structure of the population. When many cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s enter the age of incapacity, compared to the narrowed generation of “children of war”, a short-term decrease in the indicator can be observed.

The conducted study of values and indices of population aging on the territory of the EU makes it possible to distinguish separate groups of countries based on similar rates and volumes of population aging, to determine similar trends in their demographic development. Thus, we distinguish 5 groups of countries:

1) countries with the highest rates of population aging, the highest population aging index and coefficient, the largest volumes of demographic burden on the working-age population: Germany, Portugal, Italy, Greece;

2) countries that have average values of the index and the aging coefficient, but show high rates of growth of the aging population and demographic burden: the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland, France, Croatia, Czechia, Romania;

3) countries that show average values of aging, but reduced growth rates of the aging population: Austria, Malta, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden;

4) countries that show average values of population aging in all studied parameters: Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Spain;

5) the countries with the lowest rates and values of population aging are: Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg.

Fig. 1. Index of the depth of population aging in the EU countries and Ukraine (the share of people aged 80+ out of the population aged 65+)

As predicted by the EU statistical service Eurostat, from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2100, the number of inhabitants in the EU states will decrease by 27.3 million, to 420 million (Eurostat). At the same time, in 2022, the population began to recover after the decline associated with the coronavirus.

Having forecasted the structure of the population by age groups for EU countries (Fig. 2) , we can note that in the period 2020-2100, the share of people aged 0 to 14 will decrease in the first half of the century from 15.1% to 14.7%, and in the future the situation in this age category will stabilize by 15% by the end of the 21st century. The most noticeable changes will occur for the age category of the population from 15 to 64 years old - it will decrease from 64% to 52%. The share of residents aged 65-79 will increase from 14.6% to 17%, and the number of the population aged 80+ will increase from 5.9% to 14.8% (Eurostat).

Thus, the demographic burden on the working population will increase. The rapid aging of the population that Europe is experiencing is a fundamental demographic shift that affects almost all areas of society. The aging of societies is still viewed through a negative prism: as if it is a threat to the welfare of the state and a burden on the youth. But, apparently, the increase in the share of the elderly population becomes a problem only when institutions do not prepare for it and do not adapt. Indeed, the fact that people are living longer and generally healthier is primarily a testament to advances in medicine, improved living and working conditions, improved well-being, and improved health systems. The age group we traditionally define as “old people” has never been more diverse. This has prompted a rethinking of how we define and measure “old age”. And it is clear that in this new, more diverse, more dynamic world of the elderly, there is no place for rigid age categories or retirement age thresholds, there is no place for stereotypes and discrimination based on ageism.

Population aging is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future, and governments in Europe generally recognize the importance of making the necessary reforms to create age-inclusive societies. It is important at this stage to consider the progress achieved in the implementation of the significant Madrid International Action Plan on Aging, which was adopted by the governments of the EU countries 20 years ago, to determine the priority directions and spheres of social activity aimed at creating comfortable conditions for people of any age.

In order for countries to be able to strengthen their resilience in the face of demographic change, the first step is to ensure that older people can remain healthy, active and engaged in public life.

Fig. 2. Forecast of population structure by main age groups, EU-27, 2020-2100 (% of total population)

There are enormous potential benefits for people to have access to education and health care throughout their lives and to enter old age with useful skills and health. And also, when elderly people are not pushed away after reaching retirement age, but on the contrary, they remain active participants in the economy and society. At the same time, the formation and development of the “silver” economy, in which the elderly are involved, remains important. Important social steps in combating ageism and supporting the elderly can be the following steps by society and the governments of countries:

• to promote the broad involvement of elderly people in the social life of the country, communities and settlements where they live;

• to listen to the urgent problems of persons of this age category;

• to counter ageism in public discourse and practice. There should be no tolerance for age discrimination and negative stereotypes, which have become even more evident during the pandemic. Promoting a discourse focused on intergenerational solidarity, as well as on the active activities and valuable contributions of older people, will be key to changing social norms and attitudes towards older people;

• reviewing legal and political frameworks and budgets through the prism of age. Now is the time to review what needs to change in sectors such as health, education, employment and social security so that countries are in a better position to deal with the consequences of demographic change, while ensuring the rights and choices of people throughout their lives;

• to contribute to the acquisition of new knowledge and comprehensive development of the elderly, to develop the education of the “third age”.

A new and interesting solution could be the introduction of smart “silver” villages in the EU countries, which will be completely autonomous, energy-saving and adapted to the needs of the elderly. Living in such settlements will help elderly people to feel like masters of their own lives, to do their favorite work and significantly delay the need to stay in nursing homes (Bogataj D., Bolarin F.- C., Kavsek M., Rogelj V., 2020)^However, today, the issue of creating such settlements is only being researched and needs practical implementation. An interesting fact is that in Ukraine almost all long-lived people (more than 85%) who reached the age of 100+ lived in rural areas (State Statistics Service of Ukraine).