Democratic development in the modern world: modeling paths of political changes

fh_pair

5.799

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

p_autoc

3.732

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

vdem_ega

4.517

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

vdem_gen

3.371

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

p_xrcomp

2.664

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

p_xrreg

2.594

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

epi_epi

4.355

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

undp_hdi

3.276

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

empprfil

4.042

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

emppryfi

2.979

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

lfpfilo1

3.424

Residual for

gea_ea4a

and

lfpyfilo

3.077

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

fh_pair

3.678

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

p_autoc

5.489

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

vdem_ega

3.508

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

epi_epi

3.884

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

undp_hdi

3.280

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

empprfil

3.507

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

emppryfi

2.817

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

lfpfilo1

2.681

Residual for

gea_ea4b

and

gea_ea3b

3.341

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

fh_fog

2.636

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

fh_pair

6.367

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

vdem_ega

4.818

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

vdem_gen

3.956

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

p_xrcomp

3.040

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

epi_epi

3.760

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

empprfil

4.380

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

emppryfi

3.760

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

lfpfilo1

3.811

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

lfpyfilo

3.939

Residual for

gea_ea5a

and

gea_ea4a

3.656

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

fh_pair

4.668

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

p_autoc

4.478

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

vdem_ega

3.857

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

epi_epi

3.400

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

undp_hdi

2.718

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

empprfil

4.392

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

emppryfi

3.852

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

lfpfilo1

3.483

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

lfpyfilo

3.492

Residual for

gea_ea5b

and

gea_ea4b

2.798

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

fh_fog

3.878

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

fh_ipoli

2.707

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

fh_pair

6.976

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

vdem_edc

3.175

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

vdem_ega

5.178

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

vdem_gen

4.577

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

p_xconst

2.890

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

p_xrcomp

3.432

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

epi_epi

3.278

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

empprfil

4.347

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

emppryfi

4.424

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

lfpfilo1

3.826

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

lfpyfilo

4.679

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

gea_ea4a

2.861

Residual for

gea_ea6a

and

gea_ea5a

6.268

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

fh_fog

2.657

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

fh_pair

6.101

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

p_autoc

2.786

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

vdem_ega

4.550

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

vdem_gen

3.254

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

p_xrcomp

2.688

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

epi_epi

3.040

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

empprfil

4.817

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

emppryfi

4.780

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

lfpfilo1

4.012

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

lfpyfilo

4.624

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

gea_ea5a

3.796

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

gea_ea5b

3.653

Residual for

gea_ea6b

and

gea_ea6a

5.127

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

fh_fog

3.637

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

fh_pair

5.740

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

p_autoc

3.954

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

vdem_edc

2.673

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

vdem_ega

5.812

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

vdem_gen

3.027

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

vdem_lib

2.969

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

p_xrreg

4.558

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

ef_carb

6.202

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

ef_ef

7.267

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

co2

3.718

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

epi_acsa

3.627

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

epi_eh

4.612

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

epi_epi

5.952

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

epi_wats

4.236

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

undp_hdi

7.969

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

acel

2.993

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

acelr

3.697

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

acis

4.090

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

acisr

4.312

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

acisu

3.163

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

aciw

3.354

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

aciwr

3.527

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

epiehwat

5.771

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

gdpcapcu

6.210

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

gnicap11

7.538

Residual for

wdi_inte

and

gnicappp

7.701

Society Measurement

Modification Indices and Expected Change

Table 28. Modification Indices for LAMBDA-Y

	ExMinima	OppLiber	Maximali	Minimali
fh_ep	- -	0.365	0.507	3.234
fh_feb	- -	2.124	0.032	2.115
fh_fog	- -	1.566	10.844	17.517
fh_ipoli	- -	0.288	18.726	37.660
fh_pair	- -	2.654	10.803	22.919
fh_cl	4.336	- -	5.896	0.747
fh_pr	10.525	- -	8.903	11.791
p_autoc	6.498	- -	3.846	23.029
rsf_pfi	0.940	- -	1.038	0.231
vdem_dl_	6.746	0.133	- -	0.592
vdem_edc	10.512	0.396	- -	4.236
vdem_ega	11.505	0.074	- -	22.654
vdem_gen	0.320	0.382	- -	1.358
vdem_lib	0.027	0.389	- -	0.068
vdem_par	4.982	0.064	- -	11.964
p_polity	0.924	0.114	0.679	- -
p_xconst	1.959	0.057	1.057	- -
p_xrcomp	1.030	0.037	0.623	- -
p_xrreg	8.486	1.285	6.882	- -

Table 29. Expected Change for LAMBDA-Y

	ExMinima	OppLiber	Maximali	Minimali
fh_ep	- -	-0.007	-0.054	0.039
fh_feb	- -	-0.020	0.015	-0.034
fh_fog	- -	-0.014	0.229	-0.084
fh_ipoli	- -	-0.004	-0.204	0.083
fh_pair	- -	-0.022	0.272	-0.114
fh_cl	-0.002	- -	-0.014	-0.003
fh_pr	-0.004	- -	-0.020	-0.012
p_autoc	-0.006	- -	-0.027	-0.033
rsf_pfi	-0.001	- -	-0.007	-0.002
vdem_dl_	-0.026	0.004	- -	-0.010
vdem_edc	0.027	-0.005	- -	0.022
vdem_ega	-0.031	-0.003	- -	-0.058
vdem_gen	-0.004	-0.004	- -	-0.011
vdem_lib	0.001	-0.005	- -	-0.003
vdem_par	0.015	-0.002	- -	0.030
p_polity	-0.012	0.006	-0.047	- -
p_xconst	-0.005	0.001	-0.018	- -
p_xrcomp	0.002	-0.001	0.008	- -
p_xrreg	0.045	-0.032	0.188	- -

Table 30. Standardized Expected Change for LAMBDA-Y

	ExMinima	OppLiber	Maximali	Minimali
fh_ep	- -	-0.009	-0.065	0.091
fh_feb	- -	-0.024	0.018	-0.080
fh_fog	- -	-0.017	0.278	-0.195
fh_ipoli	- -	-0.005	-0.248	0.193
fh_pair	- -	-0.027	0.331	-0.266
fh_cl	-0.015	- -	-0.017	-0.006
fh_pr	-0.026	- -	-0.025	-0.028
p_autoc	-0.042	- -	-0.032	-0.078
rsf_pfi	-0.009	- -	-0.009	-0.004
vdem_dl_	-0.190	0.004	- -	-0.023
vdem_edc	0.197	-0.006	- -	0.051
vdem_ega	-0.230	-0.003	- -	-0.135
vdem_gen	-0.030	-0.005	- -	-0.026
vdem_lib	0.011	-0.006	- -	-0.007
vdem_par	0.110	-0.002	- -	0.071
p_polity	-0.088	0.007	-0.057	- -
p_xconst	-0.041	0.002	-0.022	- -
p_xrcomp	0.017	-0.001	0.010	- -
p_xrreg	0.334	-0.039	0.229	- -

Table 31. Completely Standardized Expected Change for LAMBDA-Y

	ExMinima	OppLiber	Maximali	Minimali
fh_ep	- -	-0.020	-0.147	0.204
fh_feb	- -	-0.051	0.038	-0.173
fh_fog	- -	-0.045	0.727	-0.509
fh_ipoli	- -	-0.015	-0.778	0.607
fh_pair	- -	-0.065	0.788	-0.632
fh_cl	-0.074	- -	-0.088	-0.030
fh_pr	-0.119	- -	-0.111	-0.124
p_autoc	-0.144	- -	-0.112	-0.269
rsf_pfi	-0.048	- -	-0.051	-0.024
vdem_dl_	-0.750	0.017	- -	-0.092
vdem_edc	0.794	-0.023	- -	0.206
vdem_ega	-1.076	-0.014	- -	-0.628
vdem_gen	-0.167	-0.030	- -	-0.142
vdem_lib	0.040	-0.023	- -	-0.026
vdem_par	0.668	-0.012	- -	0.430
p_polity	-0.136	0.011	-0.088	- -
p_xconst	-0.198	0.008	-0.110	- -
p_xrcomp	0.157	-0.009	0.093	- -
p_xrreg	0.585	-0.069	0.401	- -

Table 32. Modification Indices for LAMBDA-X

	Pollut	Health	Labor	Gas	Oil	Econ
ef_carb	- -	0.218	0.295	0.356	0.700	0.350
ef_ef	- -	7.892	0.207	0.571	2.064	1.805
co2	- -	6.841	0.497	3.555	8.287	1.911
epi_acsa	0.498	- -	0.000	0.183	0.011	1.897
epi_eh	0.519	- -	0.086	0.017	1.095	0.942
epi_epi	1.599	- -	1.746	0.171	0.139	3.034
epi_wats	1.407	- -	0.232	0.274	0.535	1.455
undp_hdi	29.876	- -	1.571	2.785	1.813	36.949
acel	2.432	- -	9.976	0.363	1.126	5.972
acelr	0.602	- -	2.815	0.793	1.655	2.556
acelu	2.668	- -	0.094	0.040	0.294	4.440
acis	0.027	- -	0.001	0.364	0.009	0.009
acisr	0.989	- -	0.503	0.392	0.203	2.469
acisu	0.591	- -	0.035	0.405	0.001	0.240
aciw	1.487	- -	0.149	0.046	0.208	0.961
aciwr	0.257	- -	0.129	0.080	0.809	0.030
epiehwat	0.022	- -	1.003	0.099	0.464	0.082
empprfil	0.459	0.051	- -	0.433	1.580	0.023
empprilo	4.876	0.001	- -	0.264	3.755	2.738
empprmil	0.033	1.315	- -	0.593	7.210	0.115
emppryfi	0.381	0.926	- -	0.011	0.422	1.076
emppryil	0.294	0.432	- -	0.727	0.095	0.904
empprymi	1.650	0.416	- -	0.255	0.263	1.451
lfpfilo1	0.108	0.357	- -	1.591	3.630	1.295
lfpilo15	0.165	1.969	- -	0.473	0.212	0.035
lfpmilo1	2.763	4.801	- -	0.006	3.778	3.226
lfpyfilo	0.038	1.020	- -	0.373	2.544	0.091
lfpyilo	0.416	1.182	- -	0.003	1.078	0.001
lfpymilo	4.021	0.019	- -	0.006	0.074	2.857
gas_prod	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
gas_valu	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
gas_val1	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
oil_prod	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.007	- -	0.001
oil_valu	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.007	- -	0.001
oil_val1	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.007	- -	0.001
gdpcapcu	0.809	0.158	5.085	0.461	4.870	- -
gnicap11	0.501	0.120	0.586	0.052	1.445	- -
gnicappp	0.000	0.006	0.512	0.048	0.061	- -
ipu_l_s	1.144	1.493	0.100	7.338	5.488	2.491
ipu_l_w	0.741	1.074	1.356	0.131	0.179	2.444
wdi_afpt	0.381	0.872	0.657	31.223	24.203	0.004
gea_ea1b	1.786	18.449	8.676	0.908	3.990	2.713
gea_ea2a	0.672	9.729	4.771	0.113	0.401	1.115
gea_ea2b	0.950	3.827	6.768	0.322	4.569	2.544
gea_ea3a	0.039	0.182	0.360	0.649	0.412	0.132
gea_ea3b	0.714	0.097	2.360	0.144	3.821	1.773
gea_ea4a	1.871	2.372	0.676	0.611	2.923	3.782
gea_ea4b	0.214	2.886	0.014	0.018	0.680	0.216
gea_ea5a	2.976	5.039	3.519	0.090	3.396	5.289
gea_ea5b	0.811	6.824	2.929	0.003	0.254	1.599
gea_ea6a	3.363	4.933	6.558	0.033	2.860	3.845
gea_ea6b	1.674	8.203	8.043	0.000	2.485	2.260
wdi_inte	54.737	43.187	0.111	0.160	2.654	69.785

Table 33. Expected Change for LAMBDA-X

	Pollut	Health	Labor	Gas	Oil	Econ
ef_carb	- -	-0.004	-0.003	-0.004	-0.006	-0.012
ef_ef	- -	0.031	-0.004	-0.007	-0.012	0.031
co2	- -	-0.084	0.017	0.049	0.073	-0.089
epi_acsa	-0.008	- -	0.000	-0.004	0.001	-0.015
epi_eh	-0.007	- -	0.002	0.001	-0.008	-0.009
epi_epi	0.011	- -	0.009	0.003	-0.002	0.014
epi_wats	-0.019	- -	0.006	-0.006	-0.009	-0.019
undp_hdi	0.040	- -	0.007	0.009	0.007	0.043
acel	-0.024	- -	-0.039	0.007	0.012	-0.036
acelr	-0.014	- -	-0.024	0.012	0.017	-0.028
acelu	-0.021	- -	-0.003	0.002	0.005	-0.027
acis	-0.002	- -	0.000	-0.005	0.001	0.001
acisr	0.015	- -	0.009	-0.007	-0.005	0.023
acisu	-0.009	- -	-0.002	-0.006	0.000	-0.006
aciw	-0.010	- -	-0.003	-0.001	-0.003	-0.008
aciwr	-0.006	- -	0.003	-0.002	-0.007	-0.002
epiehwat	0.001	- -	0.008	-0.002	-0.005	0.003
empprfil	0.005	0.002	- -	-0.005	-0.009	-0.001
empprilo	0.010	0.000	- -	0.002	0.008	0.007
empprmil	-0.001	-0.007	- -	0.004	0.015	-0.002
emppryfi	0.004	0.007	- -	0.001	-0.004	0.007
emppryil	0.003	0.003	- -	0.004	0.001	0.005
empprymi	-0.009	-0.005	- -	0.003	0.003	-0.008
lfpfilo1	-0.003	-0.005	- -	-0.010	-0.015	-0.009
lfpilo15	0.002	-0.006	- -	-0.003	0.002	-0.001
lfpmilo1	-0.080	-0.112	- -	0.004	0.092	-0.085
lfpyfilo	-0.001	0.007	- -	-0.004	-0.011	0.002
lfpyilo	-0.003	0.006	- -	0.000	-0.005	0.000
lfpymilo	-0.013	-0.001	- -	0.001	-0.002	-0.011
gas_prod	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
gas_valu	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
gas_val1	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
oil_prod	0.000	0.001	-0.001	0.003	- -	0.001
oil_valu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002	- -	0.000
oil_val1	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.002	- -	0.001
gdpcapcu	-0.022	-0.005	0.021	-0.007	-0.022	- -
gnicap11	0.013	0.003	-0.004	0.001	0.007	- -
gnicappp	0.000	-0.001	-0.004	0.001	0.001	- -
ipu_l_s	-0.013	-0.014	-0.004	-0.033	-0.029	-0.019
ipu_l_w	0.023	0.028	0.031	-0.010	-0.012	0.042
wdi_afpt	0.013	0.019	-0.017	0.120	0.108	0.001
gea_ea1b	0.017	0.076	-0.029	0.009	0.019	0.020
gea_ea2a	0.012	0.066	-0.026	-0.004	0.007	0.015
gea_ea2b	0.012	0.033	-0.025	0.005	0.020	0.018
gea_ea3a	-0.003	0.009	-0.007	-0.009	-0.007	-0.005
gea_ea3b	0.010	0.005	-0.015	0.004	0.018	0.015
gea_ea4a	-0.021	-0.034	0.010	-0.009	-0.020	-0.029
gea_ea4b	-0.006	-0.030	0.001	0.001	0.008	-0.006
gea_ea5a	-0.029	-0.053	0.025	-0.004	-0.024	-0.037
gea_ea5b	-0.012	-0.050	0.018	-0.001	-0.005	-0.016
gea_ea6a	-0.033	-0.057	0.037	0.003	-0.024	-0.035
gea_ea6b	-0.019	-0.060	0.033	0.000	-0.018	-0.021
wdi_inte	0.132	0.167	-0.005	0.006	0.023	0.145

Table 34. Standardized Expected Change for LAMBDA-X

	Pollut	Health	Labor	Gas	Oil	Econ
ef_carb	- -	-0.004	-0.003	-0.004	-0.006	-0.012
ef_ef	- -	0.031	-0.004	-0.007	-0.012	0.031
co2	- -	-0.084	0.017	0.049	0.073	-0.089
epi_acsa	-0.008	- -	0.000	-0.004	0.001	-0.015
epi_eh	-0.007	- -	0.002	0.001	-0.008	-0.009
epi_epi	0.011	- -	0.009	0.003	-0.002	0.014
epi_wats	-0.019	- -	0.006	-0.006	-0.009	-0.019
undp_hdi	0.040	- -	0.007	0.009	0.007	0.043
acel	-0.024	- -	-0.039	0.007	0.012	-0.036
acelr	-0.014	- -	-0.024	0.012	0.017	-0.028
acelu	-0.021	- -	-0.003	0.002	0.005	-0.027
acis	-0.002	- -	0.000	-0.005	0.001	0.001
acisr	0.015	- -	0.009	-0.007	-0.005	0.023
acisu	-0.009	- -	-0.002	-0.006	0.000	-0.006
aciw	-0.010	- -	-0.003	-0.001	-0.003	-0.008
aciwr	-0.006	- -	0.003	-0.002	-0.007	-0.002
epiehwat	0.001	- -	0.008	-0.002	-0.005	0.003
empprfil	0.005

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