Democratic development in the modern world: modeling paths of political changes

0.477

0.093

1.287

0.215

gea_ea5b

0.118

0.014

0.268

0.166

1.000

0.001

gea_ea6a

0.577

0.016

1.810

0.454

3.469

0.646

gea_ea6b

0.003

0.158

2.070

0.025

3.091

0.266

wdi_inte

3.976

5.170

0.206

0.033

1.018

0.025

acisr

acisu

aciw

aciwr

epiehwat

empprfil

acisr

- -

acisu

3.941

- -

aciw

11.041

8.567

- -

aciwr

2.124

4.181

77.177

- -

epiehwat

2.624

1.339

5.616

4.394

- -

empprfil

3.410

6.260

0.827

1.495

5.784

- -

empprilo

0.199

0.418

0.121

0.892

0.125

25.341

empprmil

1.064

3.659

0.386

0.000

4.808

24.308

emppryfi

0.531

1.500

0.805

0.257

4.497

26.200

emppryil

0.236

1.030

0.134

0.059

0.265

11.446

empprymi

0.996

4.597

0.024

0.001

5.213

53.279

lfpfilo1

2.794

6.804

0.040

0.237

4.905

106.449

lfpilo15

0.169

0.931

0.466

0.107

0.132

25.745

lfpmilo1

1.437

5.137

1.850

1.046

6.672

38.605

lfpyfilo

0.186

1.806

0.016

0.298

3.290

20.269

lfpyilo

0.996

0.940

0.166

1.449

0.513

17.990

lfpymilo

2.105

5.583

0.279

0.759

5.969

72.585

gas_prod

0.008

0.015

0.021

0.043

0.000

0.036

gas_valu

0.008

0.015

0.021

0.043

0.000

0.036

gas_val1

0.008

0.015

0.021

0.043

0.000

0.036

oil_prod

0.098

0.011

0.002

0.009

0.003

0.012

oil_valu

0.098

0.011

0.002

0.009

0.003

0.012

oil_val1

0.098

0.011

0.002

0.009

0.003

0.012

gdpcapcu

0.792

2.149

1.007

0.520

6.731

1.744

gnicap11

1.753

2.089

1.484

2.425

2.607

3.787

gnicappp

0.042

0.242

0.272

0.560

0.019

0.045

ipu_l_s

1.733

0.125

0.091

0.030

0.011

0.529

ipu_l_w

0.405

0.258

0.880

0.242

0.943

0.159

wdi_afpt

4.422

0.875

3.679

3.297

0.109

3.247

gea_ea1b

0.008

0.771

0.536

0.047

0.231

3.802

gea_ea2a

0.146

0.121

0.000

0.481

0.048

0.115

gea_ea2b

0.008

0.023

0.535

2.199

0.018

0.393

gea_ea3a

0.058

0.021

0.159

1.087

0.079

0.604

gea_ea3b

0.003

0.110

1.118

4.348

0.001

0.000

gea_ea4a

0.004

0.134

0.000

0.000

0.166

2.201

gea_ea4b

0.099

0.000

0.735

2.152

0.016

0.557

gea_ea5a

0.005

0.131

0.013

1.212

0.236

1.527

gea_ea5b

0.228

0.001

0.420

0.003

0.152

2.117

gea_ea6a

0.001

0.337

0.076

2.586

0.022

0.169

gea_ea6b

0.171

0.018

0.074

1.446

0.305

1.527

wdi_inte

0.010

0.070

0.721

0.886

0.607

4.509

empprilo

empprmil

emppryfi

emppryil

empprymi

lfpfilo1

empprilo

- -

empprmil

29.262

- -

emppryfi

0.809

27.525

- -

emppryil

2.047

8.242

6.687

- -

empprymi

0.903

58.339

9.313

46.977

- -

lfpfilo1

9.080

46.256

12.639

29.894

74.772

- -

lfpilo15

37.152

0.724

8.443

34.183

20.534

47.222

lfpmilo1

8.988

103.064

57.758

0.035

40.400

31.084

lfpyfilo

12.852

68.312

46.191

2.058

33.330

39.782

lfpyilo

36.009

4.859

0.003

3.176

8.269

3.373

lfpymilo

19.014

19.813

20.929

16.126

80.708

52.372

gas_prod

0.168

0.046

0.005

0.079

0.061

0.037

gas_valu

0.168

0.046

0.005

0.079

0.061

0.037

gas_val1

0.168

0.046

0.005

0.079

0.061

0.037

oil_prod

0.151

0.074

0.010

0.088

0.043

0.016

oil_valu

0.151

0.074

0.010

0.088

0.043

0.016

oil_val1

0.151

0.074

0.010

0.088

0.043

0.016

gdpcapcu

8.669

16.770

13.251

0.742

1.683

2.067

gnicap11

0.419

2.169

1.030

0.202

0.557

4.104

gnicappp

0.580

0.562

0.084

0.000

0.006

0.139

ipu_l_s

0.006

0.103

0.387

0.031

0.436

0.270

ipu_l_w

2.052

5.136

1.921

0.284

0.157

0.314

wdi_afpt

0.710

9.357

2.004

0.127

2.214

4.601

gea_ea1b

0.385

5.807

0.462

0.044

0.060

4.521

gea_ea2a

2.378

2.383

4.663

1.291

0.000

0.003

gea_ea2b

0.764

1.739

0.044

0.286

0.621

0.661

gea_ea3a

1.051

0.050

1.754

0.872

0.031

1.115

gea_ea3b

1.927

1.059

0.087

0.214

0.746

0.125

gea_ea4a

0.130

2.104

0.018

0.048

0.007

2.942

gea_ea4b

1.082

0.034

0.614

0.001

0.332

0.031

gea_ea5a

2.944

6.270

0.669

0.058

0.002

2.643

gea_ea5b

0.074

0.782

1.821

0.213

0.259

0.745

gea_ea6a

9.622

8.976

3.239

1.091

0.158

0.626

gea_ea6b

3.415

6.494

5.450

0.819

0.197

1.145

wdi_inte

0.375

1.254

0.073

0.248

0.004

4.557

lfpilo15

lfpmilo1

lfpyfilo

lfpyilo

lfpymilo

gas_prod

lfpilo15

- -

lfpmilo1

11.251

- -

lfpyfilo

0.234

45.749

- -

lfpyilo

3.111

0.841

17.867

- -

lfpymilo

8.074

48.095

7.132

51.212

- -

gas_prod

0.175

0.041

0.008

0.119

0.107

- -

gas_valu

0.175

0.041

0.008

0.119

0.107

- -

gas_val1

0.175

0.041

0.008

0.119

0.107

- -

oil_prod

0.148

0.064

0.005

0.092

0.069

0.000

oil_valu

0.148

0.064

0.005

0.092

0.069

0.000

oil_val1

0.148

0.064

0.005

0.092

0.069

0.000

gdpcapcu

6.126

18.550

14.438

3.207

0.287

0.037

gnicap11

0.121

2.503

0.945

0.135

0.437

0.033

gnicappp

0.109

0.232

0.428

0.328

0.181

0.004

ipu_l_s

0.033

0.370

0.255

0.129

0.722

0.069

ipu_l_w

0.859

4.407

2.672

1.536

0.037

0.002

wdi_afpt

0.002

8.699

3.748

0.133

1.374

0.433

gea_ea1b

0.000

5.415

0.410

0.060

0.041

0.001

gea_ea2a

3.670

4.164

2.241

0.503

0.011

0.028

gea_ea2b

0.188

1.239

0.071

0.970

1.128

0.056

gea_ea3a

2.279

0.322

0.765

0.415

0.053

0.009

gea_ea3b

0.623

0.428

0.316

1.953

1.892

0.102

gea_ea4a

0.066

1.517

0.068

0.002

0.002

0.013

gea_ea4b

0.069

0.063

0.179

1.589

1.354

0.040

gea_ea5a

0.698

5.182

2.285

1.281

0.196

0.076

gea_ea5b

0.153

1.909

0.063

0.493

1.103

0.000

gea_ea6a

5.766

8.499

6.628

5.169

1.333

0.168

gea_ea6b

3.077

7.724

4.169

0.901

0.023

0.087

wdi_inte

0.021

0.798

0.005

0.675

0.019

0.033

gas_valu

gas_val1

oil_prod

oil_valu

oil_val1

gdpcapcu

gas_valu

- -

gas_val1

- -

- -

oil_prod

0.000

0.000

- -

oil_valu

0.000

0.000

0.001

- -

oil_val1

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.001

- -

gdpcapcu

0.037

0.037

0.025

0.025

0.025

- -

gnicap11

0.033

0.033

0.071

0.071

0.071

0.223

gnicappp

0.004

0.004

0.018

0.018

0.018

0.839

ipu_l_s

0.069

0.069

0.014

0.014

0.014

0.006

ipu_l_w

0.002

0.002

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.251

wdi_afpt

0.433

0.433

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.452

gea_ea1b

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

4.377

gea_ea2a

0.028

0.028

0.016

0.016

0.016

4.924

gea_ea2b

0.056

0.056

0.033

0.033

0.033

1.049

gea_ea3a

0.009

0.009

0.001

0.001

0.001

1.922

gea_ea3b

0.102

0.102

0.047

0.047

0.047

1.270

gea_ea4a

0.013

0.013

0.039

0.039

0.039

0.128

gea_ea4b

0.040

0.040

0.006

0.006

0.006

0.119

gea_ea5a

0.076

0.076

0.039

0.039

0.039

4.359

gea_ea5b

0.000

0.000

0.017

0.017

0.017

0.613

gea_ea6a

0.168

0.168

0.021

0.021

0.021

14.125

gea_ea6b

0.087

0.087

0.076

0.076

0.076

8.695

wdi_inte

0.033

0.033

0.065

0.065

0.065

1.005

gnicap11

gnicappp

ipu_l_s

ipu_l_w

wdi_afpt

gea_ea1b

gnicap11

- -

gnicappp

0.276

- -

ipu_l_s

2.961

0.802

- -

ipu_l_w

2.005

0.441

1.622

- -

wdi_afpt

0.867

1.433

0.562

2.408

- -

gea_ea1b

2.996

0.117

0.134

0.538

3.141

- -

gea_ea2a

1.382

0.381

0.074

0.001

0.002

10.345

gea_ea2b

0.951

1.039

0.430

0.490

0.463

36.464

gea_ea3a

0.084

0.052

0.021

0.001

0.493

0.015

gea_ea3b

1.063

0.614

0.248

0.404

0.025

12.219

gea_ea4a

1.077

0.130

0.003

0.110

1.171

8.029

gea_ea4b

0.018

0.007

0.103

0.269

0.008

0.161

gea_ea5a

3.135

0.698

0.091

0.502

1.377

14.421

gea_ea5b

0.368

0.372

0.064

0.027

0.019

4.361

gea_ea6a

3.518

1.463

0.239

1.079

1.247

11.335

gea_ea6b

1.585

1.475

0.096

0.103

0.001

9.060

wdi_inte

1.771

4.516

0.220

0.491

0.000

1.863

gea_ea2a

gea_ea2b

gea_ea3a

gea_ea3b

gea_ea4a

gea_ea4b

gea_ea2a

- -

gea_ea2b

7.061

- -

gea_ea3a

8.806

0.020

- -

gea_ea3b

2.151

25.381

0.000

- -

gea_ea4a

0.014

8.526

2.551

5.440

- -

gea_ea4b

0.772

3.936

0.378

11.162

0.670

- -

gea_ea5a

3.502

16.060

0.113

12.997

13.363

2.242

gea_ea5b

6.841

1.157

1.409

0.312

0.392

7.829

gea_ea6a

7.827

15.457

0.722

15.653

8.187

4.096

gea_ea6b

14.219

7.658

3.531

3.471

1.680

0.535

wdi_inte

1.172

0.776

0.155

0.000

2.059

2.368

Table 52. Expected Change for THETA-DELTA

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	ef_carb	ef_ef	co2	epi_acsa	epi_eh	epi_epi
ef_carb	- -
ef_ef	-0.001	- -
co2	0.007	-0.003	- -
epi_acsa	0.001	0.000	-0.001	- -
epi_eh	-0.001	0.002	-0.005	-0.002	- -
epi_epi	-0.001	0.002	-0.005	-0.002	0.003	- -
epi_wats	0.000	0.002	-0.006	-0.001	-0.001	0.000
undp_hdi	0.000	0.001	-0.001	-0.002	0.001	0.002
acel	0.000	-0.001	0.005	-0.004	0.001	0.000
acelr	0.001	-0.002	0.007	-0.005	-0.001	-0.002
acelu	0.000	-0.001	0.004	-0.002	0.001	0.000
acis	0.000	-0.002	0.005	0.006	-0.001	-0.002
acisr	0.001	-0.003	0.006	0.007	-0.003	-0.002
acisu	0.000	-0.001	0.002	0.004	-0.001	-0.002
aciw	0.000	0.000	-0.001	-0.001	0.000	-0.001
aciwr	0.000	0.000	-0.002	-0.001	-0.002	-0.002
epiehwat	0.000	0.001	-0.003	0.000	0.001	0.001
empprfil	0.000	0.002	-0.004	-0.001	0.001	0.002
empprilo	0.000	0.000	0.004	0.000	-0.001	0.000
empprmil	0.000	-0.002	0.007	0.000	-0.001	-0.002
emppryfi	-0.001	0.002	-0.005	0.000	0.000	0.001
emppryil	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
empprymi	0.000	-0.001	0.002	0.000	0.000	-0.001
lfpfilo1	0.000	0.002	-0.005	-0.001	0.002	0.003
lfpilo15	0.000	-0.001	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000
lfpmilo1	0.004	-0.017	0.059	0.003	-0.010	-0.017
lfpyfilo	-0.001	0.001	-0.007	0.000	0.001	0.001
lfpyilo	0.000	0.000	-0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
lfpymilo	0.000	-0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.002
gas_prod	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
gas_valu	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
gas_val1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_prod	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_valu	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_val1	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
gdpcapcu	0.001	0.004	-0.027	0.002	0.002	0.003
gnicap11	0.000	-0.001	0.005	-0.001	-0.001	-0.001
gnicappp	0.000	-0.001	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000
ipu_l_s	0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.000
ipu_l_w	-0.002	0.001	-0.007	0.000	0.003	0.004
wdi_afpt	0.001	-0.002	0.001	-0.001	-0.003	-0.004
gea_ea1b	0.000	-0.002	0.005	-0.001	0.000	-0.002
gea_ea2a	0.000	-0.002	0.006	0.000	0.001	0.000
gea_ea2b	0.000	-0.002	0.004	0.000	-0.001	0.000
gea_ea3a	0.000	0.000	0.003	0.000	0.001	0.001
gea_ea3b	0.000	-0.002	0.004	0.000	-0.001	0.000
gea_ea4a	0.000	0.001	-0.002	-0.001	0.001	0.001
gea_ea4b	0.000	-0.001	0.003	0.000	-0.002	0.000
gea_ea5a	0.000	0.003	-0.007	-0.001	0.002	0.001
gea_ea5b	0.000	0.000	-0.002	0.000	-0.002	0.000
gea_ea6a	-0.001	0.004	-0.013	-0.001	0.003	0.001
gea_ea6b	0.001	0.002	-0.009	0.000	0.000	0.000
wdi_inte	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	-0.001	-0.001
	epi_wats	undp_hdi	acel	acelr	acelu	acis
epi_wats	- -
undp_hdi	-0.002	- -
acel	-0.004	0.000	- -
acelr	-0.006	0.000	0.016	- -
acelu	-0.005	-0.001	0.011	0.007	- -
acis	-0.004	-0.001	-0.001	0.000	0.000	- -
acisr	-0.004	-0.001	-0.004	0.000	-0.001	0.008
acisu	-0.004	-0.001	0.000	0.002	0.001	0.005
aciw	0.010	-0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.001	-0.002
aciwr	0.012	-0.001	-0.002	0.001	-0.002	-0.003
epiehwat	0.004	0.000	-0.002	-0.003	-0.001	-0.002
empprfil	0.001	0.001	-0.003	-0.002	-0.003	-0.002
empprilo	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000
empprmil	-0.001	-0.001	0.003	0.003	0.002	0.002
emppryfi	0.001	0.001	-0.003	-0.002	-0.002	-0.001
emppryil	-0.001	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.000
empprymi	-0.002	-0.001	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.002
lfpfilo1	0.002	0.001	-0.003	-0.004	-0.003	-0.002
lfpilo15	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
lfpmilo1	-0.006	-0.012	0.025	0.026	0.021	0.014
lfpyfilo	0.001	0.001	-0.003	-0.004	-0.002	-0.001
lfpyilo	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000
lfpymilo	-0.002	-0.002	0.003	0.003	0.003	0.002
gas_prod	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
gas_valu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
gas_val1	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_prod	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_valu	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
oil_val1	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
gdpcapcu	0.002	0.000	-0.005	-0.005	-0.003	-0.001
gnicap11	-0.001	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.001
gnicappp	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
ipu_l_s	-0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.001
ipu_l_w	0.000	0.002	-0.002	-0.002	0.000	-0.003
wdi_afpt	0.005	-0.001	0.005	0.008	0.005	-0.003
gea_ea1b	-0.002	0.000	0.002	0.003	0.003	0.001
gea_ea2a	-0.001	0.000	0.001	-0.001	0.002	0.001
gea_ea2b	-0.002	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.000
gea_ea3a	-0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.001	0.001
gea_ea3b	-0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.000
gea_ea4a	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.001	-0.001	0.000
gea_ea4b	-0.002	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000
gea_ea5a	0.001	0.000	-0.001	-0.001	-0.002	-0.001
gea_ea5b	-0.001	0.000	-0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.000
gea_ea6a	0.002	0.000	-0.003	-0.002	-0.004	-0.001
gea_ea6b	0.000	0.000	-0.003	0.000	-0.003	-0.001
wdi_inte	0.005	0.002	-0.001	0.000	-0.002	0.000
	acisr	acisu	aciw	aciwr	epiehwat	empprfil
acisr	- -
acisu	0.003	- -
aciw	-0.003	-0.002	- -
aciwr	-0.002	-0.002	0.006	- -
epiehwat	-0.002	-0.001	0.001	0.002	- -
empprfil	-0.002	-0.002	-0.001	-0.001	0.002	- -
empprilo	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002
empprmil	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	-0.001	-0.003