Family law impact of the 2015 immigration crisis on EU transit countries ' refugee and asylum policies
Determining the causes and revealing the political nature of the immigration crisis in Europe in 2915. The growing popularity of radical and right-wing political parties with pronounced anti-immigrant rhetoric in the European Union and the Schengen area.
| Рубрика | Политология |
| Вид | дипломная работа |
| Язык | английский |
| Дата добавления | 18.07.2020 |
| Размер файла | 940,5 K |
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Estonia
Not enough information
Finland
Nonsecuritized
France
Nonsecuritized
Germany
Nonsecuritized
Greece
Nonsecuritized
Hungary
Securitized
Viktor Orbбn
Fidesz - Hungarian Civic Alliance (right-wing)
Iceland
Not enough information
Italy
Securitized
Matteo Salvini
LegaNord (right-wing)
Latvia
Not enough information
Liechtenstein
Nonsecuritized
Lithuania
Not enough information
Luxembourg
Not enough information
Malta
Not enough information
Netherlands
Nonsecuritized
Norway
Nonsecuritized
Poland
Securitized
Jaroslaw Kaczynski
Law and Justice (right-wing)
Portugal
Nonsecuritized
Slovakia
Securitized
Robert Fico
Direction - Social Democracy (centre-left)
Slovenia
Nonsecuritized
Spain
Nonsecuritized
Sweden
Nonsecuritized
Switzerland
Nonsecuritized
Table 5. Results of the analysis of the process of securitization in the EU's MSs
Therefore, it can be observed that in all seven cases we have identified the securitizing actors, whose referent objects are traditionally sovereignty and identity. However, the success of their securitizing moves can be defined only by the level of citizens' acceptance. To illustrate the securitizing actors' popular support, we have elaborated the table with the election results for the given party or the candidate in the period from 2016 to 2019 (see the table 6).
Table 6. The elections results, 2016-2019
|
Country |
Securitizing Actor |
His/Her Party Affiliation |
Shareof Votes, % |
|
|
Austria |
Sebastian Kurz |
The AustrianPeople's Party |
31,5% (2017) |
|
|
Czech Rep. |
Miloљ Zeman |
Independent |
54,8% (2018) |
|
|
Hungary |
Viktor Orbбn |
Fidesz - HungarianCivicAlliance |
49,27% (2018) |
|
|
Italy |
Matteo Salvini |
LegaNord |
37,5% (2018) |
|
|
Poland |
Jaroslaw Kaczynski |
LawandJustice |
49,59% (2019) |
|
|
Slovakia |
RobertFico |
Direction - SocialDemocracy |
28,3% (2016) |
Thereby, it can be seen from the table that the level of popular support is high enough in all the cases. At the same time in five states (namely Austria, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovakia) the political parties, presented by the securitizing actors, won the majority of seats in the national legislatures, while in the Czech Republic Miloљ Zeman became the president, obtaining the absolute majority of votes. Consequently, it is fair to assume that securitizing moves in these states were popularly accepted, and as a result, successfully completed.
Concerning the rest 13 states, that are assumed to have the nonsecuritized issue of immigration, their state representatives' public speeches are dominated by `liberal' lexicon with a huge number of such words like `rights', `cooperation', `humanitarian', `democracy'. It can be seen that such lexicon can be a powerful instrument of the rhetoric of universalism, prevailed in the Western European states. As a result, we assume that these states have the nonsecuritized issue of immigration. However, we cannot claim that the issue of immigration is absolutely nonpoliticized in these states. For instance, due to the huge inflows of asylum-seekers and refugees in Germany, Greece, France and Spain, the issue of immigration has gained particular salience there.
Thus, the analysis of the process of securitization in the Schengen states shows us the overall trend - almost all countries with the `closed-door' immigration policy tend to have the issue of mass immigration securitized, not politicized. Also, we can observe that the Schengen states with a relatively high level of popular support for anti-immigrant parties experience the successful process of securitization on the national level. Consequently, we may assume that the process of securitization of the issue of immigration leads to the shift in the implementation of immigration policy to stricter one.
4.3 Regression analysis
In the following subchapter we move to the regression analysis in order to examine and identify the causal relations between the turn to stricter immigration policy at the national level and the independent variables, employed in the present research. Results obtained via multiple linear regression (MLR) are presented in the table 7. The established causal relations show that the shift to stricter immigration policy, operationalized as the number of TCNs returned to a country of origin: (i) is more likely to occur in the Schengen MS with the securitized issue of immigration; (ii) depends on the total number of applications for asylum; (iii) also depends on the total number of TCNs found to be illegally present; (iv) occurs when the anti-immigrant political parties enjoy the high level of popular support; (v) is dependent on the economic situation in a country. Furthermore, the explanatory power of the model is sufficient, and the coefficients are statistically significant.
Accordingly, the following observations can be made on the basis of the MLR results. The parameter estimates for the IV `Securitized/Nonsecuritized' indicate that framing of the issue of immigration as a security threat increases the possibility of the shift towards stricter refugee and asylum policy. In this regard, the Schengen states with the securitized status of the issue of immigration, namely Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovakia, do experience this shift - thus, this observation confirms the hypotheses 5 and 6 of the present research.
Furthermore, the parameter estimates for the IV `Applications total' indicate that the total number of first-instance asylum applications increases the possibility of the shift towards stricter refugee and asylum policy. As far as the relationship between the total number of applications and the total number of returned TCNs is positive, we can make the following observation - the more the first-instance applications, the higher the probability that the Schengen MS will pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy.
Table 7. MLR regression of the number of TCNs returned following an order to leave, 2011-2018
The same can be said about the parameter estimates for the IV `illegal stays' - the more TCNs found to be illegally present annually in a state, the higher the probability that this state will pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy. Hence, this observation confirms the hypothesis 7 of the present research - the Schengen MSs, that are mostly exposed to the flows of irregular immigration, do tend to pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy relative to the MSs, that are exposed to these flows to a lesser extent.
Concerning the parameter estimates for the IV `support for anti-immigrant parties', they indicate that popular electoral support of the political parties with a strong anti-immigrant position also increases the probability of the shift towards stricter refugee and asylum policy. As can be observed, the relationship here is positive, this means that the higher the level of popular support for the anti-immigrant political parties in the Schengen MS, the higher the probability that this MS will pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy at the national level. This observation confirms the hypothesis 3 - broad popular support of the political parties, maintaining a strong anti-immigrant position, does tend to contribute to the overall shift towards stricter refugee and asylum policy. In addition, we observe that socioeconomic arguments, widely presented by the political parties with a strong anti-immigrant position, contribute to the policy shift. This observation is indicated by the parameter estimates for the IVs `GDP' and `Unemployment rate', and it confirms the hypothesis 4 of the present research.
Nevertheless, the MLR results do not support the hypotheses 1 and 2. We do not find any support for the impact of transit-ness of the Schengen MSs on the shift to stricter refugee and asylum policy. The parameter estimates for the IV `Transit/Nontransit' are statistically insignificant. It means that even if the Schengen transit MSs theoretically have more political and socioeconomic incentives to pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy, their peripheral location does not define their policy.
Conclusion
To summarize, it can be seen that the results of the analysis largely confirmed our hypotheses. The Schengen MSs that experience the process of securitization of the issue of immigration tend to pursue stricter and refugee policy at the national level relative to the MSs with the non-securitized issue of immigration. In other words, these MSs tend to employ fencing strategies for both external and internal control policies. While the other Schengen MSs maintain relatively liberal refugee and asylum policy. However, we should note that the extent of `policy liberality' may also vary greatly due to the presence of the politicization process - the one when an issue, being a part of public policy, requires government decision and resource allocations.Barry Buzan, Ole Waver, Jaap de Wilde, “Security. A New Framework for Analysis,” (London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. 1998): 23-24. In this regard, further research is needed in order to address the process of politicization and its implications of the refugee and asylum policy.
Furthermore, growing electoral support of the political parties, maintaining a strong anti-immigrant position, contributes to the process of the securitization of the issue of immigration. We have found out that in all six cases with the securitized issue securitizing actors, representing right-wing political parties with an anti-immigrant stance, enjoy the high popular support. And we can assert that their political activity contributes to the overall shift to stricter refugee and asylum policy.
One more important point to highlight is the flows of irregular immigration. Though the statistics on the issue cannot be absolutely accurate, on the basis of the existing data we have found out that the Schengen MSs, mostly exposed to the flows of irregular immigration, pursue stricter refugee and asylum policy.
However, the notion of `transit-ness' has proved to be insignificant. The location of a state, whether peripheral or central, has no significant effect on the refugee and asylum policy implementation. We have figured out that the political processes inside a state such as the successful political activity of the anti-immigrant parties, the presence of the security-language in the field of refugee and asylum policy, have more important implications for the policy shift.
All in all, answering the research question, we can mention a combination of factors, contributing to the shift to stricter refugee and asylum policy, they are the growing popular support for the anti-immigrant political parties, their usage of particular rhetoric (e.g. representation of immigration as a threat in socioeconomic terms) and the presence of the process of securitization of the issue of immigration, which even alone requires the use of extra means.
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Appendix
Appendix 1. The list of anti-immigrant political parties, analyzed in the present research, 2011-2018
|
Country |
Political Party |
|
|
Austria |
ЦVP |
|
|
Belgium |
FlemishInterest |
|
|
Czechia |
ANO |
|
|
Denmark |
DF |
|
|
Estonia |
EKRE |
|
|
Finland |
TrueFinns |
|
|
France |
NationalFront |
|
|
Germany |
AfD |
|
|
Greece |
Syriza |
|
|
Hungary |
Fidesz |
|
|
Iceland |
None |
|
|
Italy |
LegaNord |
|
|
Latvia |
NationalAlliance |
|
|
Liechtenstein |
None |
|
|
Lithuania |
None |
|
|
Luxembourg |
ADR |
|
|
Malta |
None |
|
|
Netherlands |
PVV |
|
|
Norway |
Progress Party |
|
|
Poland |
PiS |
|
|
Portugal |
None |
|
|
Slovakia |
Smer-SD |
|
|
Slovenia |
SNS |
|
|
Spain |
Vox |
|
|
Sweden |
SD |
|
|
Switzerland |
SVP |
Appendix 2. The `security-language' wordsStephane J. Baele, Olivier C. Sterck, “Diagnosing the Securitization of Immigration at the EU Level: A New Method for Stronger Empirical Claims,” Political Studies 63 (2015): 1135-1137. (Note: the full list can be found in the cited article)
|
Abatement |
Damage |
Invasion |
|
|
Afghanistan |
Danger |
Muslims |
|
|
Aggression |
Defense |
Police |
|
|
Alliance |
Destabilization |
Poverty |
|
|
Alert |
Destruction |
Power |
|
|
Al-Qaida |
Disarmament |
Prevention |
|
|
Anarchy |
Disaster |
Protection |
|
|
Battle |
Disintegration |
Radical |
|
|
Bipolar |
Disobedience |
Resources |
|
|
Block |
Division |
Response |
|
|
Bomb |
Emergency |
Retaliation |
|
|
Capability |
Enemy |
Safe |
|
|
Catastrophe |
Escalation |
Sanction |
|
|
Ceasefire |
Evil |
Security |
|
|
Coercion |
Existential |
Sovereignty |
|
|
Collapse |
Extraordinary |
Stability |
|
|
Colonial |
Failed |
State |
|
|
Conflict |
Fear |
Strategy |
|
|
Contain |
Fight |
Surveillance |
|
|
Control |
Force |
Terror |
|
|
Cooperation |
Illegal |
Threat |
|
|
Counterterrorism |
Insecurity |
||
|
Criminal |
Intervention |
Appendix 3. The most frequently used words in the speeches of state representatives (Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Slovakia)
Appendix 4. The most frequently used words in the speeches of state representatives (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Liechtenstein, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland)
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