Change and continuity in Russian-US academic exchange programmes. A temporal analysis. 1946-2015

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National Research University "Higher School of Economics"

Faculty of Social Sciences

Public Policy Department

Human Rights and Democratic Governance Track

MASTER'S THESIS

CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN RUSSIAN-US ACADEMIC EXCHANGE PROGRAMMES. A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS. 1946-2015

Moscow

2016

Table of contents

Introduction

1. Chapter i path dependence theory in political studies

1.1 General explanation of path dependence theory and its adoption for political research by Ruth and David Collier's

1.2 James Mahoney's and Paul Pierson's theoretical approaches

1.3 Kathleen Thelen's, Deborah Yashar's, Giovanni Capoccia's and R. Daniel Kelemen's theoretical findings on institutional evolution and the theory of path dependence

1.4 Criticism of the theory of path dependence

2. Chapter ii US-Russia (USSR) foreign policy between 1946 and 2015: an overview

2.1 USSR-US foreign policy during the Cold War (1946-1991)

2.2 Russian-US foreign policy after the Cold War till date (1991-2015)

3. Chapter iii change and continuity in russian-us academic exchange programmes

3.1 Institution of Academic Exchange in Russian-American cooperation: history and development

3.2 The main critical junctures and their impact on the evolution of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the US and Russia

3.3 Internal non-political factor that influence the development of the institution and its effect

3.4 Forecast of further evolution/devolution of the Academic Exchange Institution in Russia-US cooperation

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

There are some sustainable institutions of cooperation between Russia and the US, despite the fact that interaction between these countries is considered to be strained. In the context of international relations, the United States and the Soviet Union were superpowers. One is the largest, the other is the most powerful in the world. The USA has a strong institution of education, based on theoretical paradigms and applied skills. For this reason Russia started to interact with the US. It provides a great opportunity for further development of Russia and its society, especially in educational sphere. The best way to share knowledge is to exchange them; it makes scientific development faster and more effective. Academic Exchange is more substantial institution than just sharing knowledge. Exchange provides applicants with an opportunity to immerse themselves into the educational environment completely. For this reason, Russian-US academic exchange programmes are so popular.

It is believed that unstable interaction between Russia and the United States on foreign policy issues affects the transformation of the Institution of international academic exchange established between the two countries. Most often it was mentioned during the period of Cold War; and it is often said at the present moment, because Russian-US relations since 2012 remain quite strained. Current research is devoted to study an evolution, transformation and persistence of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the US and Russia, especially it is focused on state academic exchange programmes between the two countries.

The period we analyze (from 1946 to 2015) is chosen because of two reasons. First, because it is considered that during political and diplomatic crises the Institution of Academic Exchange is most susceptible to transformation. The second reason is that before the Cold War, there was no Russian-American educational interaction in its modern sense. The first attempts to introduce at least some cultural and educational relations between the USSR and the US were made in 1955, i.e. during the Cold War.

Theory and Methodology

The methodological framework of the paper is Historical Institutionalism, because we analyze the Institution of International Academic Exchange in Russia-US cooperation since its emergence to the current moment. It was created by political decision in 1950s, then there was a period of institutionalization; and now it is a quite sustainable institution of cooperation between two countries. We suppose that the most significant transformations of this institution take place in a period of political and diplomatic crises between Russia and the US. In time of crises institution activities declined and after their completion, began to grow significantly. There are actually two historical periods of crisis in Russia-US interaction, which are the most significant: the Cold War (1946 - 1991) and the Current Crisis beginning with 2012. In order to understand better changes and continuity of the institution, we use Temporal Analysis method, the variation of Comparative Historical Analysis. Temporal Analysis is suitable because we study the evolution, transformation and persistence of one object, not comparing two different countries. This method allows us to analyze the situation in a whole, namely to trace policy continuation and policy changes during the chosen period and to understand how it influences on the institution we study.

The dissertation is based on basic principles of the theory of path dependence. In the framework of Historical institutionalism, the study of path dependence has important implications for research. Path dependence explains an evolution of institutions through critical junctures or significant events, which can lead to policy changes. The theoretical ideas of path dependence were introduced by economists in order to explain the processes of technology adoption. Contemporary researchers implemented the concept of path dependence into political studies.

There are two conditions of institutional dynamics - policy continuation and policy change. At critical junctures, previous conditions allow contingent choices that set a specific trajectory of institutional development. We consider, external factors, like political event, may generate critical juncture and lead to policy change. It could influence a transformation of the whole institution. When at the point of critical juncture the choice is done, and the development of the institution is set on a particular trajectory or path; it is difficult, or even impossible, to change or reverse it. It occurs even when another existing alternatives are more profitable to institutional development. An institution begins to make profits on a given path, along which it goes. It is a process of increasing returns. Methods for analyzing critical junctures are reasoning, narrative process tracing, counterfactual analysis, and longitudinal comparisons of critical junctures.

Research problem

The central contention is that political and diplomatic crises in the relations between the US and Russia are barriers to the development of academic partnership. Against the background of such a situation, there are some risks (funding cuts, propaganda and administrative pressure, the problem of international recruitment, etc.) for the future academic cooperation between the US and Russia. Therefore, now we are at the point of transformation of sustainable institution of academic exchange in Russia-US cooperation. It makes the research relevant, because we need to understand the direction of its transformation.

Literature review

In order to consider the problem on theoretical level, we use researches on historical institutionalism in political studies by Ruth and David Collier, Jack A. Goldstone, P. Pierson, Paul A. David, J. Mahoney, K. Thelen, Arrow J. Kenneth, Deborah Yashar, G. Capoccia and R. Daniel Kelemen, Thomas Rixen and Lora Viola. They explain the concepts of path dependence, critical junctures and the application of them in comparative historical analysis to examine contingent factors and their impact in institutional studies.

There are some books, which provide empirical knowledge of academic exchange at the global level, the content of which includes Russian-American educational cooperation. For example, books by Buck Sutton S., Obst D., Kuder M., Lemmens N., Macready C. and C. Tucker. In addition, there is a book by American politician, Curt Weldon, "U.S.-Russia Partnership: A New Time, A New Beginning", which describes all the aspects of cooperation between Russia and the USA, including educational field. There are also historical materials as about the countries separately, as well as about both states. There are many reports and publications by the Institute of International Education, for instance, "Student Mobility and the Internationalization of Higher Education: National Policies and Strategies from Six World Regions (2011) ", "The IIE Network Handbook for International Educators: Resources for Networking and Internationalizing Your Campus (2014) ", "Funding for United States Study 2014: A Guide for International Students and Professionals".

Regarding the exchange programs, like Fulbright, Global UGRAD, TEA and others, there are a lot of information about them, mainly in the websites of those structures, which organize international exchange in the US and Russia. There are some websites, which include most of the programs, like the websites of the US Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, the U. S. Department of Education, the US Embassy in Russia, the International Research and Exchanges Board (IREX). Besides this, every program has its own website in Russia and in the US. There are some articles by Russian authors, which describe these exchange programs and their operation during current political crisis written in English - by P. Koshkin and I. Nechepurenko. They analyze exchange programs as instruments of cooperation between both countries; also, they pay attention to the positive consequences of the educational exchange. Open Doors Institute of International Education provides a quantitative data sources, including statistical data, different tables, diagrams and charts about global student mobility. There is also a data of recent years about US-Russian educational exchange. For example, "Open Doors 2011: Report on International Educational Exchange" and "Project Atlas: Atlas of Student Mobility". There are some Russian statistical Centers as well, for example, the Centre for Sociological Research of the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia and Federal State Statistics Service. These empirical materials allow us to understand what really have been happening with educational cooperation between Russia and the United States, especially during political crises. Using empirical data, it is possible to determine critical junctures, to trace whether the political changes taking place or not, and to understand whether it is sequential or random events in being of the studied institution.

Research question: Do external factors (such as political contradictions) have a greater impact on the development of the institution of academic exchange in Russian-American cooperation? We claim that they do. Historical institutionalism states that international mechanism influences public policy.

The goal is to define the most important factors (external and internal), which influence change and continuity of Russian-US international academic exchange institution.

Research tasks are:

1) to conceptualize theoretical and methodological framework of the research using the theory of path dependence

2) to review Russia-US foreign policy and its perspectives

3) to study history and development of the Academic Exchange institution in Russia-US cooperation empirically

4) to apply theory of path dependence to real processes:

- to define the main critical junctures in foreign policy

- to analyze their impact on the evolution of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the US and Russia

- to define other non-political factors, which influence the development of the institution

- to determine what factors external (political events) or internal have a greater influence on the evolution of the institution

5) to make a forecast of further evolution/devolution of the academic exchange institution in Russia-US cooperation, based on theoretical postulates and empirical facts

The assumption: international mechanisms or external factors (such as political and diplomatic crises) have a greater impact on the transformation and development of the institution of academic exchange in Russian-American cooperation.

Research Object is the Academic Exchange institution in Russia-US cooperation.

Research Subject is the evolution, transformation and persistence of the academic exchange institution in Russia-US cooperation on the background of political trajectory during the period from 1946 to 2015.

Novelty of the Research

There are many works, mostly reports, on the subject of how current political situation affects Russian-American academic exchange. However, all these studies have limits. There is no research with evidence of that. Actually, nobody did a complex research on this topic. We try to show that the process is more complicated than it seems, using not only empirical data but also theory of path dependence to frame our study, check the assumption and to prove our claim. With a current research, we plan to show the mechanism of institutional transformation and development.

Structure of the paper

This thesis consists of five parts: an introduction, three chapters and conclusion.

The introduction frame the issue, justifies its relevance and scientific novelty, poses the research problem, formulates the research question, gives an overview of the literature on the particular issue, announces the goal and tasks, as well as our theoretical assumption, explains the rationale of the object and subject of research, and gives information on the structure of the paper.

The first theoretical chapter is devoted to the theory of path-dependence. It explains the concepts of path dependence, critical junctures and the usage of comparative historical analysis to examine contingent factors and their impact in institutional studies. This chapter also includes case study of other examples, in which this theory was applied. It is an illustration of how theory of path-dependence can help to analyze institutional development.

The second chapter is a review of US-Russia foreign policy during the chosen period. It is based on the available empirical materials, historical data and statistics. This chapter illustrates empirically a policy continuation, timing and sequences, policy evolution and policy change.

The third chapter is an application of the theory of path-dependence to the research. It traces the process of formation, institutionalization, operation, transformation and development of the institution of academic exchange between the US and Russia. We define the main critical junctures in foreign policy and analyze their impact on the evolution of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the US and Russia. After it, we analyze changes within the institution itself, which are not related to political decisions. These internal factors and their influence on the development of the institution as a whole will also be explored in our research. At the end of the chapter we present an answer to the research question. Namely, we determine what factors external (political events) or internal have a greater influence on the evolution of the institution of academic exchange between Russia and the US. Also, we try to make a kind of forecast on further evolution of the academic exchange institution in Russia-US cooperation.

Conclusion includes findings of each of the three chapters and answer to the research question.

1. Chapter i path dependence theory in political studies

The theoretical ideas of path dependence were introduced by economists in order to explain the processes of technology adoption. Contemporary researchers in comparative sociology and political science implemented the concept of path dependence into analyses of political and social phenomena.

1.1 General explanation of path dependence theory and its adoption for political research by Ruth and David Collier's

Path dependence is primarily being used in comparative historical analysis of the development and persistence of institutions, whether they are political, social or cultural. Talking about the general idea of this concept, path dependence demonstrates how the number of decisions someone faces at a particular moment is limited by the decisions he made in the past, even if past circumstances are no longer relevant. Path dependence can also refer to available outcomes at a certain moment or to long-term immutable process.

There are two basic theoretical frameworks explaining how path-dependent processes could be structured:

1) "Reactive sequences" framework. According to this model, initial event generates a chain of events, which are linked between each other temporally and causally. This chain is durable and nearly uninterruptible. The last link of this chain is the outcome. Using this pattern, one can see how the original event is associated with the outcome. Links between the initial event and the outcome are considered as mediating variables. "While A may connect to Z causally, the mechanisms that link those two variables might be a series of variables themselves, and a full understanding of the relationship between A and Z requires analysis of each step of the process. At the same time, A may connect to Z independently of the mediators, maintaining the direct causal connection between the early variable and the outcome" James Mahoney and Daniel Schensul, Historical Context and Path Dependence. The Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis. Edited by Robert E. Goodin & Charles Tilly. Part VI History Matters, p. 467.

Scientists who operate with reactive sequence arguments cannot say for certain with which extent an initial event has a causal influence on the outcome, independently of intermediate events. However, they are agree that this extent of impact is quite limited. For example, Goldstone considers that the invention of the steam engine led to the industrial revolution in England. According to him, it became possible largely because the transitional events set it into motion Jack Goldstone, The Rise of the West 1500-1850: Entrepreneurship, Culture, and the Birth of Modern Economic Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Some scholars argue that the model of reactive sequences should not be considered as the only type of path-dependent processes. In particular, Pierson states that the usage of reactive sequences may lead to the mistake. For example, when any events are not linked causally, but could be interpreted as a reactive sequence. Thus, Pierson states that only self-reproducing sequences could be considered as path dependence. He thinks this view maintains boundaries of the concept, not opening the concept too far Pierson, Paul Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics, American Political Science Review Vol. 94, №2 (2000).

2) "Critical juncture" framework. In its general sense, critical juncture is a point in time, which is seen as critical due to the prevailing special circumstances. In political science, it is a significant event that requires decision-making. It is believed that current conditions at the critical juncture generate possible choices (or decisions) that set vectors of further development. The state of things in the future depends on a particular decision adopted at this point. The drivers could be increasing returns (the amount of the benefits depends on choices were made), positive feedback and self-reinforcement (it makes forces, which sustain the decision).

Theory of path dependence states that current conditions at the critical juncture are defined by the decisions that were taken in the past. Thus, the preceding conditions affect the outcome. Studying political and social institutions, path dependence theory claims that at the critical juncture previous conditions dictate possible choices that set a certain trajectory of institutional development and fix it. In addition, it is very difficult or even impossible to change or reverse this trajectory.

This framework was most notably adopted by Ruth and David Collier in political science. They made two major theoretical contributions regarding the usage of path dependence theory with their research paper "Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America (1991)". The ideas of critical junctures and path dependence themselves were not new. The first contribution is that they linked concepts of critical juncture (period of change in history or in political unit that leave a distinctive legacy) and path dependence (trajectory of change arising from and constrained by critical junctures) Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton University Press (1991). The second contribution is that they formulated these ideas into a specific model relevant to research in comparative political science.

Their work remains one of the most systematic, regarding the formulation and application of the theory of path dependence and critical junctures. Ruth and David Collier inspired such outstanding scholars in the field of comparative political science as James Mahoney, Paul Pierson, Kathleen Thelen and Deborah Yashar. They developed and worked out this model henceforward in their works.

The existence of two theoretical frameworks enables scholars to take advantages of each of them in their research. Scientific analysis in general may profit from the usage of different theoretical patterns. Nevertheless, researches should make their choices, studying a particular object in order to avoid confusion. In our current research, we use "critical juncture" framework for studying a development and persistence of the institution of academic exchange between the US and Russia.

It will be useful to single out the following statements from the foregoing explanation of "critical juncture" framework, which are commonly used in the methodological work:

a) History matters. "Most generally, path dependence means that where we go next depends not only on where we are now, but also upon where we have been" Liebowitz, S.; Margolis, Stephen (2000). Encyclopedia of Law and Economics. p. 981 http://encyclo.findlaw.com/tablebib.html . "Specific patterns of timing and sequence matter" Pierson, Paul Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics, American Political Science Review Vol. 94, №2 p. 251 (2000).

b) When the decision is taken, and the process is going along the trajectory (path), then there could be a set of different outcomes. "A wide range of social outcomes may be possible" Ibid..

c) The drivers could be positive feedback, increasing returns and self-reinforcement.

d) Even slight current changes can radically change the situation in the future. "Large consequences may result from relatively small or contingent events" Ibid..

e) If the process has been launched, it is very difficult to change or reverse it. "Particular courses of action, once introduced, can be almost impossible to reverse" Ibid.. It is the statement, which explains so-called historical hang-overs. They can be no longer effective, but still exist.

f) Evolution of institutions occurs through critical junctures or significant events, which can lead to policy changes. "Political development is punctuated by critical moments or junctures that shape the basic contours of social life" Ibid.. In the point of critical juncture, previous conditions allow contingent choices that set a specific trajectory of institutional development. It could influence a transformation of the whole institution.

g) External or internal factors may generate critical juncture. It could be even random event.

Despite the fact that common understanding of what path dependence is has a lot in common and may seem quite similar, there are some nuances in the explanation of this theory among different scientists. Many of them in their research give their own definition of this phenomenon. Indeed, if research objects are different, hence, explanations may vary, differ from or compete with each other. A researcher focuses on the aspects of the phenomenon, which are appropriate for his work. He can contribute to, specify, develop or change the theory. It is a process of formation, consolidation and strengthening of the theory as a whole.

Ruth and David Collier in their major book "Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America (1991)" were analyzing the capitalist development in Latin America in comparative perspective. Their argument is that "one of the fundamental political transitions has been the emergence of worker protest and an organized labor movement, along with the varied responses of the state to this new actor within society" Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton University Press (1991) p. 3. With this paper they seek to "trace out contrasting trajectories of national political change, we see this study as a part of the quest in the Latin American field over 30 years to explain the different paths of national development found within the region" Ibid., p. 3. The approach of the book is a "type of comparative history designed to discover and assess explanations of change" Ibid., p. 5. Ruth and David Collier analyzed similarities and differences among countries. Beside this, they implemented new methodology. They called it "the procedure of process tracing over time within countries" Ibid., p. 5.

They made an attempt to evaluate "whether the dynamics of change within each country plausibly reflect the same causal pattern suggested by the comparison among countries" Ibid., p. 5. Another words, Ruth and David Collier tried to prove empirically the new theoretical pattern of the evolution of political institutions and policy changes. They argued that general model, which reflects these processes is the same. It is called path dependence. They were working within framework of "critical junctures and historical legacies" Ibid., p. 27. They defined critical junctures as "major watersheds in political life, which establish certain directions of change and foreclose others in way that shapes politics for years to come. Such watersheds (or transitions) may be called "critical junctures" " Ibid., p. 27.

The authors also described the character of critical junctures and perspectives of using them in policy research. "The character of critical junctures and the perspective from which they are analyzed vary greatly. Some critical junctures may entail considerable discretion, whereas with others the presumed choice appears deeply embedded in antecedent conditions. The critical juncture may involve a relatively brief period in which one direction or another is taken or an extended period of reorientation. Some analysis stress underlying societal cleavages or crises that led up to the critical juncture, whereas others focus primarily on the critical juncture itself. More commonly, the effect of the critical juncture is intertwined with other processes of change" Ibid., p. 28.

Summarizing their theoretical ideas, Ruth and David Collier presented a "path dependent" model of policy change and illustrated it. "Yet underlying this diversity is a common understanding of change that is a cornerstone of comparative historical research on development. It suggests a "path dependent" pattern of change, in that outcomes during a crucial transition establish distinct trajectories within which one damn thing follows another. This theory captures a related feature of critical junctures in stressing the idea of sensitive dependence on initial conditions" Ibid., p. 30. They made a scheme of the path dependent pattern to illustrate their theoretical views on this phenomenon Ibid., p. 31:

Ruth and David Collier claim the importance of the perspective of using "path dependent" pattern in policy research. "This pattern is central to research on crises, sequence and timing of development, continuity and change in international and domestic policy, institutionalization and new institutionalism. Though the importance of this pattern is particularly evident in studies based on cross-national comparisons, it also plays a role in research on long-term patterns of change within individual countries" Ibid., p. 40. Thus, this theoretical model fits to our research on the formation, transformation and development of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the United States and Russian Federation.

1.2 James Mahoney's and Paul Pierson's theoretical approaches

James Mahoney who has also made an important contribution with his valuable paper "Path Dependence in Historical Sociology" (2000) suggested a new approach in defining path dependence. "In this article, I argue that path dependence characterizes specifically those historical sequences in which contingent events set into motion institutional patterns or event chains that have deterministic properties. The identification of path dependence therefore involves both tracing a given outcome back to a particular set of historical events, and showing how these events are themselves contingent occurrences that cannot be explained on the basis of prior historical conditions. Because the presence or absence of contingency cannot be established independent of theory, the specification of path dependence is always a theory-laden process. Nevertheless, within the context of any given research, criteria exist for determining whether an event is contingent, thereby allowing analysts to make objective claims about the existence of path dependence" James Mahoney, Path Dependence in Historical Sociology, Theory and Society 29:4 (August 2000) p. 2-3.

James Mahoney considers two types of outcomes that could be explained by the analysis of path-dependent sequences - "deviant outcomes or instances exceptionalism" Ibid., p. 3 and outcomes, corresponding to theoretical expectations. In deviant case studies, an outcome occurs that was not predicted by theory. In the framework of path dependence theory, it happens when early events set a trajectory of change, which differs from theoretical expectations. Some deviant cases could have unique or very rare outcomes. The author provides some examples of it in his book: "For example, the creation of the global capitalist system in Europe, the fate of socialist organizations in the United States, and the industrial revolution in England are considered from this standpoint (deviant outcomes)" Ibid., p. 5.

Unique outcomes can also be achieved in another manner: "Path-dependent studies may also focus on deviant cases that possess outcomes shared by other cases, but lack the causal variables normally associated with the occurrence of these outcomes" Ibid., p. 6. It is worth paying attention to this way of producing historical outcomes. It does not mean that there is no path dependence in this case. It is also a part of the theory and can be explained with its help. That is, there is no chain of causally-linked events, but there are few unrelated cases or variables that lead to a particular outcome. "For example, the development of large private corporations in the United States is considered as an outcome that occurred despite a lack of the initial conditions associated with its emergence in other countries" Ibid., p. 6.

James Mahoney distinguishes two main types of sequences of events - self-reinforcing sequences ("characterized by the formation and long-term reproduction of a given institutional pattern" Ibid., p. 10) and reactive sequences ("a tight coupling of events in which each event in the sequence is both a reaction to earlier occurrences and a cause of subsequent occurrences" James Mahoney and Daniel Schensul, Historical Context and Path Dependence. The Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis. Edited by Robert E. Goodin & Charles Tilly. Part VI History Matters, p. 467). "Self-reinforcing sequences often exhibit what economists call "increasing returns". With increasing returns, an institutional pattern - once adopted - delivers increasing benefits with its continued adoption, and thus over time it becomes more and more difficult to transform the pattern or select previously available options, even if these alternative options would have been more efficient" James Mahoney, Path Dependence in Historical Sociology, Theory and Society 29:4 (August 2000) p. 10. In the case of reactive sequences, "the outcome is dependent on each prior event in what forms an overall path" James Mahoney and Daniel Schensul, Historical Context and Path Dependence. The Oxford Handbook of Contextual Political Analysis. Edited by Robert E. Goodin & Charles Tilly. Part VI History Matters, p. 468. J. Mahoney uses reactive sequences to designate chains of causally-linked and temporally ordered events.

Another scholar, Paul Pierson, defines path dependence as "a social process grounded in a dynamic of increasing returns" Pierson, Paul Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics, American Political Science eview Vol. 94, №2 (2000) p. 251. In his opinion, definitions of path dependence vary between a broader and narrower understanding. In a broader sense, path dependence means that previous stages are causally relevant in a chronological sequence. Other words, what happened earlier in time will influence on possible outcomes at a later point in time. It can be summarized to the statement that history matters. In a narrower sense, path dependence means that previous steps in a certain direction stimulate further dynamic of movement in the same direction. It is the idea of increasing returns. "In an increasing returns processes, the probability of further steps along the same path increases with each move down that path. This is because the relative benefits of the current activity compared with other possible options increase over time. The costs of exit - of switching to another alternative - rise" Ibid., p. 270. Pierson uses the term in its narrower sense.

He claims that "increasing returns processes are likely to be prevalent, and good analytical foundations exist for exploring their cases and consequences. The investigation of increasing returns can provide a more rigorous framework for developing some of the key claims of recent scholarship in historical institutionalism" Ibid., p. 251. He listed these key claims: "specific patterns of timing and sequence matter; a wide range of social outcomes may be possible; large consequences may result from relatively small of contingent events; particular courses of action, once introduced, can be almost impossible to reverse; and consequently, political development is punctuated by critical moments or junctures that shape the basic contours of social life" Ibid., p. 252.

He considers that these key claims "stand in sharp contrast to prominent modes of argument and explanation in political science, which attribute "large" outcomes to "large" causes and emphasize the prevalence of predictable political outcomes, the irrelevance of timing and sequence, and the capacity of rational actors to design and implement optimal solutions to the problems that confront them" Ibid., p. 253. According to his view, path dependence arguments are appropriate for analyzing many important fields of political life. Therefore, these arguments may "shake many subfields of political inquiry" Ibid., p. 253.

Paul Pierson focuses on "social process subject to what economists call "increasing returns", which could also be described as self-reinforcing or positive feedback processes" Ibid., p. 259. Let us remind that for some researchers, increasing returns are the origin of path dependence, while for others - it is only one type of path dependence. For P. Pierson "increasing returns are the source of path dependence" Ibid., p. 259. He emphasizes that "increasing returns are of great significance in contrast to broader conceptions of path dependence" Ibid., p. 262. In his opinion, increasing returns processes include two central elements that constitute the sense of path dependence. "First, they pinpoint how the costs of switching from one alternative to another will, in certain social contexts, increase markedly over time. Second, and related, they draw attention to issues of timing and sequence, distinguishing formative moments or conjunctures from the periods that reinforce divergent paths. In an increasing returns process, it is not only a question of what happens but also of when it happens. Issues of temporality are the heart of the analysis" Ibid., p. 270.

He also drew attention to the application of increasing returns. He says that there is actually a wide range of applications, even in those areas where it is difficult to imagine. According to Pierson, increasing returns arguments are the most developed in economics. Application of increasing returns in economics has provided analytical and logical justification of the concept. Economists not only clarified the main indicators of path dependence, but also determined basic aspects of the social environment that generates these processes. Nevertheless, it is not enough just to apply the arguments from economics to political reality. It is necessary to understand the difference between political and economic environment. P. Pierson recommends to determine the features of political reality that require certain modifications, in order to be able to apply the theory of path dependence in political science.

He insists that increasing returns arguments are also relevant to an understanding of politics and other spheres of social life. "Indeed, factors such as the prominence of collective activity in politics, the central role of formal, change-resistant institutions, the possibilities for employing political authority to magnify power asymmetries, and the great ambiguity of many political processes and outcomes make this a domain of social life that is especially prone to increasing returns processes" Ibid., p. 270. He underlines the significance of increasing returns arguments: "They justify efforts to stretch the temporal horizons of political analysis. They can redirect the questions political scientists ask, which will contribute to a richer appreciation of the centrality of historical processes in generating variation in political life. They can also direct attention toward particular variables and suggest promising hypotheses about the sources of both political stability and political change in certain common political settings" Ibid., p. 275.

1.3 Kathleen Thelen's, Deborah Yashar's, Giovanni Capoccia's and R. Daniel Kelemen's theoretical findings on institutional evolution and the theory of path dependence

Kathleen Thelen made cross-national comparison in order to explore the genesis of institutional differences in four countries - Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Japan - in her book "How Institutions Evolve: the Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan" (2004). Her purpose was to understand why these countries pursued such different trajectories with respect to skill formation. She discovered "how the development of skill formation in the early industrial period interacted with the development of collective bargaining institutions and nascent labor unions and employer organizations in ways that set countries on different political-economic paths" Thelen, Kathleen, How Institutions Evolve: the Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan. Cambridge University Press (2004) p. 11.

With respect to her theoretical views, she believes that the new generation of institutionalists focuses on the institutional evolution and the theory of path dependence. "Whereas a first generation of "new" institutionalists focused on comparative statics and mostly asked what impact institutions had on political outcomes, the current literature on institutions has delved more deeply into the questions of institutional evolution and path dependence" Ibid., p. 23. She considers that "the main explanations of the form and character of institutions are various approaches traveling under the rubric of path dependence. Although there are many versions of this argument, most scholars embracing this idea seriously entertain the possibility of "historicist explanation" of the origins of institutions" Ibid., p. 25. She explained that "the answer to the question of "why institutions take the form they do" is historical not functional" Ibid., p. 25.

She, like Pierson, supports increasing returns arguments in the theory of path dependence. "Timing and sequencing loom large in determining which of several possible equilibria is reached - and whether the most efficient solution is selected. Timing matters because once a choice is done, it is a subject to significant increasing returns processes" Ibid., p. 27. She provides an example from technological sphere: "Increasing returns effects can translate an early and perhaps idiosyncratically induced advantage into a stable trajectory of development, as firms adapt to the prevailing standard, investing in it in ways that reinforce the initial choice. Through these developments, the initial choice can get "locked in", making it hard to shift the standard even if a competing technology is revealed to have been the more efficient one" Ibid., p. 30. "What political scientists have taken from this is the intuitively attractive idea that politics, like technology, involves some elements of chance (agency, choice), but once a path is taken, previously viable alternatives become increasingly remote, as the relevant actors adjust their strategies to accommodate the prevailing pattern" Ibid., p. 30.

She agrees with R. and D. Collier and J. Mahoney that "in political science, the concept of path dependence has thus become closely linked to the idea that countries undergo "critical junctures" that set them moving along particular (cross-nationally different) trajectories that are then difficult if not impossible to reverse" Thelen, Kathleen, How Institutions Evolve: Insights from Comparative Historical Analysis, 208-240 in James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer, eds., Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003). She supports the ideas of crucial junctures (regarding "the origins of cross-national variation in important institutional arrangements" Thelen, Kathleen, Timing and Temporality in the Analysis of Institutional Evolution and Change. Article?in?Studies in American Political Development 14(01):101 - 108 (2000)) and feedback effects ("through which institutions, once selected, reproduce themselves and also shape the trajectory of institutional development by constraining subsequent choices" Ibid., p. 104). Kathleen Thelen believes that "such analyses show how the current shape of institutions is deeply conditioned by the historical circumstances surrounding their genesis" Thelen, Kathleen, How Institutions Evolve: the Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan. Cambridge University Press (2004) p. 32.

At the same time, she considers that ideas of increasing returns and positive feedback are more suitable for the study of institutional stability than institutional change. "Increasing returns and positive feedback arguments have been more helpful in understanding the sources of institutional resiliency than in yielding insights into institutional change" Ibid., p. 3. Kathleen Thelen gives her thoughts on institutional changes in the path dependency theory: "The notion of path dependence seems to encourage scholars to think of institutional change in one of two ways: as either very minor and more or less continuous or major but then abrupt and discontinuous" Ibid., p. 35. Her study "rejects those versions of a path-dependent argument that paint a deterministic picture of institutional "lock in," and elaborates an alternative perspective that underscores the contested nature of institutional development and, in so doing, recovers the political dynamics that drive institutional genesis, reproduction and change" Ibid., p. 37. She examined some cases in order to demonstrate how manifestations of institutional stability and change are often intertwined. Kathleen Thelen's analysis is devoted to political processes through which institutions appear, function and evolve in length of time.

Deborah Yashar in her book "Demanding Democracy: Reform and Reaction in Costa Rica and Guatemala, 1870's - 1950's" (1997) examined the origination of democracy and authoritarianism by analyzing the cases of two different countries in Latin America. She paid attention to the fact that before the 1950's Costa Rica and Guatemala reproduced similar patterns of political development and change. In the 1870's, it was the beginning of liberal authoritarianism that lasted seven decades. After it, in the 1940's, there was a period of democratic reforms and counter reform movements, which deposed democratic regimes in the middle of twentieth century. Then Costa Rica became the most stable democratic country in Latin America, while Guatemala is authoritarian country with one of the most brutal rules in Latin America region. Deborah Yashar's research answers the question of why it happened in this way after similar historical trajectories Deborah Yashar, Demanding Democracy: Reform and Reaction in Costa Rica and Guatemala, 1870's - 1950's (April 30, 1997).

The period of 1940's and 1950's is a candidate for critical juncture in the Latin American history. She developed a critical juncture argument in order to explain two regime outcomes - democracy in Costa Rica and authoritarianism in Guatemala. D. J. Yashar considers that differences in the structure of the relations between state and society during the period of liberal reform affected regime outcomes in the future. Different types of state-society interactions produced contrast reform contexts during the 1940's and 1950's. The democratic and social reform period of the 1940's and 1950's was different in two analyzed countries, because there were distinctions in the strategies, goals and social compositions of reform coalitions. This divergence resulted in the formation of democracy in Costa Rica and military-authoritarianism in Guatemala. Without the critical juncture in the 1940's and 1950's, Guatemala and Costa Rica may still have similar regime paths Ibid..

Deborah Yashar's book examines an application of the ideas of path dependence approach to the study of causes of political regime change. It reviews the main components of path dependence theory, such as critical junctures, legacy and continuity.

Another very important theoretical paper describing critical junctures was written by Giovanni Capoccia and R. Daniel Kelemen ("The Study of Critical Junctures. Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism"). They consider the concept of critical juncture as one of the most important components of historical institutionalism. "Many causal arguments in the historical institutionalist literature postulate a dual model of institutional development characterized by relatively long periods of path dependent institutional stability and reproduction that are punctuated occasionally by brief phases of institutional flux - referred to as critical junctures - during which more dramatic change is possible. The causal logic behind such arguments emphasizes the lasting impact of choices made during those critical junctures in history. These choices close off alternative options and lead to the establishment of institutions that generate self-reinforcing path-dependent processes" G. Capoccia and R. Daniel Kelemen, The Study of Critical Junctures. Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism, World Politics 59 (03), p. 341.

They agree with Pierson that "junctures are `critical' because they place institutional arrangements on paths or trajectories, which are then very difficult to alter" Paul Pierson, Politics in Time (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004), p. 135. See also James Mahoney, "Path Dependent Explanations of Regime Change", Studies in Comparative and International Development 36, no. 1 (2001), p. 114. They believe that "path dependence is a crucial causal mechanism for historical institutionalists, and critical junctures constitute the starting points for many path dependent processes" Ibid., p. 342. G. Capoccia and R. D. Kelemen address two questions, concerning usage of critical junctures in historical institutionalism, in their book. One of them is conceptual, and one - empirical. "First, how should one define a critical juncture? Second, how should one analyze critical junctures?" Ibid., p. 343. They provided answers and explanations to them.

Regarding the first question, they believe that there is a wide range of application of the concept of critical junctures. They proposed their own definition of this phenomenon in the framework of historical institutionalism. "While in principle critical junctures can be invoked in order to interpret all sorts of developmental processes - ranging from evolutionary biology, to macro history, to organizational decision-making processes, to individual life histories - we focus on institutional analysis. In institutional analysis critical junctures are characterized by a situation in which the structural (that is, economic, cultural, ideological, organizational) influences on political action are significantly relaxed for a relatively short period, with two main consequences: the range of plausible choices open to powerful political actors expands substantially and the consequences of their decisions for the outcome of interest are potentially much more momentous" Ibid., p. 345. They offered the definition that we consider promotes more fruitful use of the critical junctures concept in institutional analysis.