Change and continuity in Russian-US academic exchange programmes. A temporal analysis. 1946-2015

Both aspects of our research problem are confirmed to be relevant. We proved with this research that crises of political and diplomatic relations between the US and Russia are barriers to the development of academic partnership. We also provided evidences that now we are at the point of transformation of sustainable institution of academic exchange in Russia-US cooperation.

Our research goal was to define the most important factors (external and internal), which influence change and continuity of Russian-US international academic exchange institution. The most significant external factor that affects the development of the institution, is US-Russian foreign policy. We defined nine critical junctures in foreign policy and carried out a detailed analysis of their impact on the evolution of the Institution of Academic Exchange between the US and Russia. The first critical juncture established the Academic Exchange Institution in Russia-US cooperation. It was created by a political decision, proving the dependence on foreign policy processes. As for all the other critical junctures, we have identified types of dependence of institutional development on foreign policy processes:

1) Direct dependence - when policy processes immediately change the situation in academic exchange. This type of dependence occurred in 1962, in the beginning of the 1970s, and in 1991.

2) Setting of the trend - when a critical juncture set institutional development on a certain path. It occurred in 1985 (uptrend), and in 2003 (downtrend).

3) Strengthening (or fixing) of the trend - when a new critical juncture fixes and strengthens the tendency of institutional development. It happened in 1991, and in 2007-2008.

The only internal factor we found that slows down the development of the institution is a stagnation in Russian-US academic exchange in terms of unequal students' mobility. There are several times more students from Russia, who travel to the United States for educational purposes, than students from the US who travel to study in Russia. It contradicts with the rules established in academic exchange. From the Russian side, there is practically no selection among the US candidates; while in the US, the requirements for candidates from Russia are very strict. Also, some US educational organizations have expressed a desire to terminate the agreements, since such conditions for academic exchange become unfavorable for them. This phenomenon of stagnation emerged throughout the 2000s and is observed to date.

Answering to the research question, we claim that two types of factors affect the development of academic exchange institution in Russian-American cooperation. Our research indicates that the external factor (foreign policy interaction) affects more.

An important observation obtained in the course of research, that during the period of institutionalization, external factors influence stronger than the internal ones. On the next stage of institutional development (operation), internal factors are added to the external ones. It is important to note that internal factors (if they are negative) could be resolved inside the institution. If they are positive, they only strengthen the institution as a whole. Internal factors cannot lead to a significant transformation of the institution, but can speed up or slow down its development. The institution cannot resolve external problems by itself (or affect the external factors). Therefore, they are considered more significant.

Our theoretical assumption proved to be true. External factors significantly affect an evolution and transformation of academic exchange institution between the US and Russia. The academic exchange institution in US-Russian cooperation was established by a political decision, so the situation in foreign policy has a strong influence on it.

As now we are at the point of transformation of sustainable institution of academic exchange in Russia-US cooperation, we need to understand the direction of this transformation. We suggest that a further pattern of development depends on the nature of future policy changes. Based on this, we propose two scenarios for the evolution of academic exchange institution: 1) a "cyclical development" and 2) a "linear development". Most likely, in the future, there will be a combination of the first and second scenarios.

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