Afghanistan in Transnational Infrastructural Projects of Central and South Asia

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Government of the Russian Federation

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY «HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS»

Faculty of World Economy and World Politics

Educational program

International relations: European and Asian studies

MA dissertation

Theme:

Afghanistan in Transnational Infrastructural Projects of Central and South Asia

Oleg G. Paramonov

Мoscow 2019

Table of contents

Introduction

1. The theoretical framework of the study

1.1 Neoliberalism as the conceptual foundation

1.2 Advantages and limitations of neoliberalism in the study case

2. Integration and infrastructure projects involving Afghanistan

2.1 SAARC: History of creation and key problems of cooperation

2.2 One Belt One Road : opportunities and risks for Afghanistan

2.3 Afghanistan as a crossing knot of interests of regional and extra-regional actors

3. Security issues as the main challenge for the socio-economic development of Afghanistan

3.1 General characteristics of the security challenges in Afghanistan

3.2 China's interest in Afghanistan

3.3 Russia, the U.S. and the Afghan agenda

Conclusion

Sources

Introduction

Over the past decades, Afghanistan has been repeatedly portrayed as a dangerous, war-thorn country by the media. The war between the Mujahedeen and the Soviet army (1979-1989), the U.S. war and intervention in Afghanistan (2001-2017) and the Taliban presence since 1996 Malik, Y. Geo-political Significance of the Wakhan Corridor for China. //Research Gate. June 2014. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271911374_Geopolitical_Significance_of_the_Wakhan_Corridor_for_China (Date of access: 10.03.2019) have had a huge impact on Afghanistan's overall condition. However, there is much hope that the coming ten years will be optimistic times. On the 31^st of October, 2018, the World Bank published its “Doing Business 2019” report Doing Business 2019 report // The World Bank. 1 May 2018.[Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2019-report_web-version.pdf (Date of access: 15.12.2018), In this annual report that measures business regulations in 190 countries, it was declared that Afghanistan reached the top 10 list of improvers in doing business alongside Azerbaijan, China, Djibouti and India. Afghanistan climbed 16 positions in the rankings from 2018, advancing from the 183^rd place to the 167^th place and showed absolutely remarkable improvement in four of the ten indicators measured namely: Protecting Minority Investors (26^th), Starting a Business (47^th), Resolving Insolvency (74^th) and Getting Credit (99^th). Majidyar, A. W. Afghanistan Declared a Top Improver in 2019 Doing Business Ranking. // The Diplomat. 7 November 2018.[Electronic resource]. URL: https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/afghanistan-declared-a-top-improver-in-2019-doing-business-ranking/ (Date of access: 28.12.2018) These statistics are encouraging, however they show there is still a lot of room for improvement. Ongoing hostilities have severely hampered any efforts in the past when it comes to initiatives in the field of mining, trading and transnational cooperating and have led to events such as the total cut off of the natural gas export. By the mid-1990's there was little mineral, oil and gas extraction even though Afghanistan is recognized for its richness in resources. Though its prolificacy in resources could be considered an advantage, it has made the territory a scene for international conflicts and violence, a playground for foreign powers to fight out their disagreements and for their own interest.

Afghanistan has not only the benefit of being rich in resources. Being a landlocked country, Afghanistan is strategically favored by its geography as it can be considered part of both South-Asia and Central-Asia, and is often included in the Middle-East landscape. Therefore, the country is not only rich in resources, but also in offering access to many markets; Afghanistan is an economic corridor and shortcut for natural resources between South and Central Asia. This fact has not been overlooked and many regional actors are willing to be a part -mainly financially- in the reconstruction of Afghanistan to gain access to the large variety of markets Afghanistan can open doors to.

The object matter of the study is the Central and South Asian transnational infrastructure projects in Afghanistan and the subject is their development potential on a national and regional level as well as the challenges it imposes to Afghanistan, regional and extra-regional actors.

The aim of the study is to gain a deeper understanding of the dynamic between Afghanistan and South and Central Asian regional partnerships that are being formed within the framework of transnational infrastructure projects.

To achieve this aim, the research has the following five objectives:

1. To target the main transnational infrastructural South-Asian and Central-Asian projects that could have a great impact on Afghanistan as well as on the entire regional political and economic climate;

2. To gain a better understanding of what Afghanistan can gain from its involvement in such projects;

3. To specify what Afghanistan risks by involving in such projects;

4. To grasp how the security issue is being dealt with;

5. To comprehend what there is to gain or risk on a regional level, beyond Afghanistan, and what role Afghanistan can have in this dynamic.

The chronological framework of the study covers the period from 2007 to the present. This choice is due to the fact that in 2007, Afghanistan became a member of SAARC [South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation], a regional integration unit that proposed the development of cross-border infrastructure projects as one of the areas of cooperation.

The hypothesis of the study is that Afghanistan find itself in a position where it has to choose the right balance between self-sufficiency and cooperation. The country has been ground for foreign disputes and foreign interests, the consequence being economic stagnation and growing security issues. An increase in economic development of Afghanistan could incite many changes in the region as it could provide for its resource-lacking neighbor, Pakistan, which could tone down India vis-а-vis China. As for Afghanistan's involvement with Beijing's project of going global, it could give the once war-thorn country the status of a transition-country and all the benefits that this status carries with it. The more Afghanistan diversifies its cooperation and the more it takes its serious security issue at hand, the more one can expect to see Afghanistan's economy grow over the coming decades, bringing an overall improvement in the quality of life of Afghans. Afghanistan could eventually become a very important regional key player in the global system. afghanistan security neoliberalism russia

The theoretical basis of the study uses the perspective of neoliberalism in the context of international relations, as the importance of the structure in the international system cannot be overlooked considering how it influences actors from different spheres (politics, finance, governmental organizations and non-governmental organizations, etc.) in international relations. In the analysis of bilateral and multilateral relations, the paradigm of the structure presents concepts of neoliberalism complex interdependence, transnationalism, vulnerability and sensitivity. The study uses the works of neoliberals J. Nye and R. Keohane as well as from opposing neorealist J. Mearsheimer.

Sources of research are wide and diverse. A wide range of data from various sources has been used during the research of this subject. The primary sources for the research can be organized as follows:

1. Official document resources include the Asian Development Bank's report on TAPI pipeline; the Afghan Ministry of Commerce & Industry's Regional Trade Arrangements; The Indus Waters Treaty between the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan furnished by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs; Treaty of China-Afghanistan Friendship, Cooperation and Good-neighborly Relations Takes furnished by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China; the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's report on Afghan Opiate Trafficking along the Northern Route; The Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation; The SAARC Agreement on South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA); The World Bank's report on the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CSA-1000)

2. Official documented statements include the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Petroleum on TAPI pipeline; documents on the Association of Regional Cooperation of South Asian Countries (SAARC); document of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU); documents of the World Bank; the U.S. Department of State statement on U.S. Support for the New Silk Road; documents of Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan. A significant amount of information was obtained from the analysis of official speeches, statements, comments of top officials, high-ranking officials, and other influential politicians of the states of South and Central Asia as well as Russia.

3. News Material. Regnum; Ria Novosti; Afghanistan Times; The Diplomat; The Economic Times; Fair Observer; The Financial Times; Forbes; The Nation; The New York Times; Tehran Times. The Hellenistic Shipping News; Tolo News; BBC.

Literature review. The study conducted is based on a narrow spectrum of academic publication works, as the topic has not been under a close consideration.

Russian authors are A. Kazantsev, M. Konarovsky; A. Kupryanov, I. Safranchuk, etc. Authors who wrote in English are Angela Stanzel; Dmitry Suslov; Ian Dudgeon; Jonathan E. Hillman; Kenneth Katzman; Suzanne Levi-Sanchez; Zia Ur Rehman,etc. During the preparation of the theoretical part of the research were used the works of J. Nye and R. Keohane. The publications used are from Russian and foreign specialized research centers such as the Higher School of Economics, the European Council on Foreign Relations, the University of Central Asia, and foreign publications specializing in world and regional politics, such as Foreign Affairs, The Diplomat, etc.

Academic novelty of the research. The research of this study has created a comprehensive picture of the current situation in Afghanistan and the possible changes that transnational infrastructure projects from Central and South Asia could mean for the country and the region, both on the short-term and the long-term;

It is a contemporary research, covering 2007 until the present, on regional interconnectivity between Central Asia and South Asia, with Afghanistan at the very heart of it;

It introduces an amount of valuable sources into the scientific circulation;

By using the perspective of neoliberalism as an analytic tool, previous researches are brought more descriptive characters to the research.

Practical implication. Currently, the Russian Federation is building a system of relations with its allies and partners. This study can be used by Russian interested departments, as well as analytical offices of international organizations to which Russia is a party (Collective Security Treaty Organization, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, etc.). The main provisions of the work can also be used for educational courses, programs and manuals on the latest history and international relations.

CHAPTER 1: The theoretical framework of the study

1.1 Neoliberalism as the conceptual foundation

The theoretical framework of the research upon which ideas will be developed will be the neoliberal theory. Neoliberalism is a fairly modern concept, a retake on the more traditional liberalism and a 20^th century adaptation of 19^th century ideas. It goes hand in hand with the concept of the free market and touches political matter such as privatization, free trade, deregulation hence, economic liberalism supposed to free individuals against the excessive power of the government. Though neoliberalism does not reject the laissez-faire that characterizes classic liberalism so well - in fact, it is a still very important aspect of neoliberalism- it encourages the guidance of a strong state and promotes what we would call the social market economy, the free market competition.

However, as mentioned above, this concerns economic neoliberalism and how neoliberalism applies more concretely to this study case and in the context of international relations. In the study of international relations, neoliberalism often refers to the belief that states are or should be concerned most of all with absolute gains rather than relative gain to other states. In other words, it is about economic competition. Neoliberalism is, together with neorealism one of the most influential contemporary approaches.

Alongside neorealism, neoliberalism is one of the two most influential contemporary approaches to international relations; the two perspectives have dominated international relations theory for the last three decades. “Interdependence” is the key word of neoliberalism in international relations. The idea of interdependence however is not that contemporary. In fact, it appeared in Immanuel Kant's most influential work “Towards Perpetual Peace” and later in Norman Angel's more detailed and elaborate “Great Illusion” who then argued that economic interdependence between Great Britain and Germany would make war less likely to occur. It was only after World War II that prominent Harvard professors Joseph S. Nye and Robert O. Keohane sophisticated the theory by giving the most comprehensive explanation of their theory in their book “Power and Interdependance” (1977), Suslov, D. Understanding International Relations Theory: Complex Interdependence // Higher School of Economics. 2019. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.coursera.org/lecture/international-relations-theory/complex-interdependence-aRnJ1 (Date of access: 17.01.2019) a major contribution to political sciences. Hence, J. Nye and R. Keohane are considered to be the founders of neoliberalism as they developed an opposing theory on neorealism.

J. Nye and R. Keohane cover three assumptions that are part of the realist thought: states are coherent units and dominant actors in international relations, force is usable and effective as an instrument of policy, and international politics is a hierarchy. Keohane, Robert and Joseph Nye/ 1989/ Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Transition. p. 23-24 The theorists argue that international politics are constituted of channels that connect societies exceeding the conventional Westphalian state system. This can show itself in many forms whether it be multinational corporations and organizations or informal governmental ties. It is through these channels that the actual political exchange happens and not through the limited interstate channel as realists would assume. States are consequently not acting as coherent units as the concept of “transnational” can only be applied when states are no longer perceived as such. As for the concept of a hierarchy in international relations, J. Nye and R. Keohane believe there is such a thing, as they believe there are many different agendas in international politics and armed forces are no longer the only force states refer to when they wish to achieve something. Furthermore, domestic and foreign policy become less and less separated as well as low and high level politics and it is impossible to give a clear agenda in interstate relations. Consequently, military force is no longer the prevailing solution to issues in a complex interdependent world. Whilst J. Nye and R. Keohane believe military force is more and more negated, it does not exclude important political alliances and military relations from forming itself and creating rival blocs such as could be seen during the Cold War.

The term “interdependence” implies a state of connectivity among states and of which the destruction would cause severe long-term damage to all implicated and is therefore avoided at all cost. Complex interdependence is created so relations do not break. It is equally a state where economy evolves into politics and where both spheres are tightly intertwined. A complex interdependence between states can completely transform political relations between states, as wars are less likely to occur because the use of military force would destroy the interdependence. Hence, states have to resolve issues through cooperation and this cooperation becomes an incentive to manage that interdependence. The downside is that asymmetric interdependence causes vulnerability and it is only truly interdependence if it is symmetric.

In practice, there are fewer cases that can show us how complex interdependence works and whether it is successful. The first and most obvious example to give would be the European integration which started off with the stimulation of interdependence between Germany and France following WWII. The U.S. and China show a tenser version of two powers abundant in conflicts and contradiction, but still compelled to manage relations in a constructive way. The transatlantic interdependence shows a more deep and strong economic link between civil societies and the security space. As for Russia, unlike with the U.S., it cannot afford any conflict with the European Union and though tensions have arisen over the past decade, Russia and the E.U. have equally compelled to manage their relations without resorting to violence. Russia's relations with the E.U. has different aspects nevertheless. Russia is a major trade partner with Germany and Italy whilst it has very little economic ties with Spain, for instance.

Interdependence is however not bulletproof as have recent tensions between Russia and the E.U. proven with the event of sanctions as well as the deteriorating relations between Russia and Ukraine since 2014. Suslov, D. Understanding International Relations Theory: Complex Interdependence // Higher School of Economics. 2019. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.coursera.org/lecture/international-relations-theory/complex-interdependence-aRnJ1 (Date of access: 17.01.2019) A historical example of failure of complex interdependence would be Germany and Great Britain who despite their efforts to create such a tie failed to prevent WWI from happening, which indeed caused great damage. When it comes to the U.S.-China relation, predicting future developments remains a hardy task.

It is further worth drawing ones attention to J. Nye's explanation on soft power. Briefly, soft power is defined as the ability to attract and co-opt instead of coercing, which is to be defined as hard power. In other words, soft power is having the ability to make belief that others have a choice or do something by choice by shaping their preferences through appeal and attraction. This can be done through foreign policies and political values, but also through culture such as we have seen over the past decades with the U.S. Soft power equally goes through less transparent channels and lobbying through powerful political and non-political organizations to influence the public's opinion on certain issues or matters. J. Nye said “the best propaganda is not propaganda” Nye J. The information revolution and soft power p.6 // Harvard Library, 2014. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/11738398 (Date of access: 14.01.2019), in other words; it goes unnoticed. Whilst J. Nye brought up the subject in his book “Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power” (1990), he went deeply into the subject in his book “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics” (2004). J. Nye's theoretical starting point on the theory of soft power is the dissatisfaction towards the explanatory power of the international relationship patters. J. Nye believes realism to emphasize too much on hard power whilst he believes that in today's international relations, policy and sense of value has become increasingly important. In fact, J. Nye thinks countries use soft power to achieve their goals such as through ideological and political education. He mentions soft power also manifests through educational exchanges, universities, social media (which consequently makes democratic states more successful in their soft power) and entertainment.

Perhaps the most famous critic on J. Nye and R. Keohane's theory on neoliberalism in international relations would be John J. Mearsheimer, renowned political scientist at the University of Chicago. Follower of Kenneth Waltz and Hans Morgenthau's theories, J. Mearsheimer considers alliances do create peace, but do so by deterrence and by influencing the behavior of member states. In other words, there is no place for compromise in interdependence and it is rarely symmetric. A concrete example would be the entire western hemisphere imposing sanctions on Russia after the Crimean issue after the United States made that decision. Perhaps, most countries who sanctioned Russia would not have done so if the US itself had not. J. Mearsheimer, being a realist, inevitably constructs his argument on the theory that politics are anarchic and that there is no structure, only chaos and states fighting to be the strongest. In international relations, realism dictates that power is the most important factor and that power is decentralized. That is, there is no formal central authority, which means that essentially every state is equal in the system, and every state seeks self-help and works towards its own benefit. To do so, each state seeks to make as many other states as possible dependent. The balance of power, which is created through international relations merely gives rise to the security dilemma that all states face. To the realists, if states cooperate and interact, it is merely to be able to measure the power of one another.

1.2 Advantages and limitations of neoliberalism in the study case

To further develop upon the subject, the study shall continue with the neoliberal theory as its very basis, as it applies to the study case in many different ways.

As Afghanistan finds itself to be located between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, the wellbeing of Afghanistan has a great impact on all regional actors involved. Afghanistan has been in the past vulnerable to foreign interference that did not spark interdependence nor stability. Nevertheless, there is hope that the recent interest many regional actors such as India, Iran, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kirghizstan took in Afghanistan will be of a different nature. In the theory of neoliberalism in international relations, the line between the political sphere and the economic sphere is increasingly thin, as well as the line between low level and high-level politics. Past the international and global phase, the world is considered to have entered the era of transnationalism. Grown out of the heightened interconnectivity between people, the very definition of what a border is and what it means among nation states has taken a complete different significance. As finance, politics, economy, culture, governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations and individuals intertwine, expand and take different more complex shapes, so have issues. Narco-trafficking, terrorism, corruption, debt, crisis and environmental issues have taken a different scale and such transnational issues require transnational solutions.

For this reason, neoliberalism applies perfectly to the case of study. Afghanistan's security issues are not only a worry to Afghanistan. Terrorism has most certainly been a worry on the global level but most of its victims are nevertheless in the region itself. The burden of terrorism has not only caused concern of spreading, but also disabled many regions from economic activities.

Perhaps the best-known and most respected attempt to theorize “interdependence” in the international relations sphere is complex interdependence. Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye define in “Power and Interdependence” the concept as reciprocal effects among actors originating from “international transactions- flows of money, good, people and messages across international boundaries”. Rogerson, K. S. Keohane and Nye's complex interdependence in the information age // Taylor & Francis Online. Information Interdependence. 2 December 2010. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13691180051033379?journalCode=rics20& (Date of access: 06.01.2019) There is much hope that complex interdependence between Afghanistan and other regional actors could ensure long lasting peace by inciting regional actors to cooperate on issues as this will be at their own benefit. Complex interdependence can be achieved in different ways. In this subject of study, the interest taken by regional actors to invest into transnational infrastructure projects in Afghanistan is interpreted as an attempt to achieve such a state of complex interdependence. Firstly, because such projects are grounded on common interest and the desire to first and foremost enable economic activities in geographically physically challenging areas where infrastructure tends to be either absent or in a bad condition. Secondly, there is hope that economic trade with Afghanistan as a transit country will create complex interdependence not only between the country and its neighbors, but eventually on a larger scale between South Asia, Central Asia and eventually the Middle East.

Infrastructure projects are not only the source of large capital being pumped into states; they first are incentive for dialogue between states even before the actual projects are put to work. The years of negotiation and discussion of common interest prior to the projects are very beneficial in their own way. Nevertheless, dwelling conflicts such as between India and Pakistan have often been the cause of stagnation and slowed down the progress in regional dialogues though there is hope that economic interest will prevail at some point.

Infrastructure carries many promises with it such as a peaceful region, cooperation in finance, security and politics, and economic growth. Regardless, complex interdependence cannot always guarantee absolute and permanent peace. Being on land that is so rich of resources, Afghanistan has more than once been prone to exploitation. In addition and as a consequent, the country has a tremendous wealth gap with countries such as China, Iran and Kazakhstan. In order for Afghanistan to achieve and be part of complex interdependence with other regional states and to be truly benefitting from it, it has to tackle its internal issues related to security such as terrorism, narco-trafficking and corruption, all closely related to one another. The idea is that there could be a correlation between economic interdependence and security, but relying too much on foreign investments, Afghanistan could become once more the territory of dispute between foreign powers. Economic interdependence can also be of asymmetric nature, which can, in case of conflict, make the costs very high for one counterpart and very low for the other. Regardless of that, in a complex interdependence relationship, states will tend to avoid conflicts and disputes on a military level as cooperation is considered the key of success. Competition and cooperation between different economic sectors make it too costly for states to interact in a military conflict because war is very risky when it comes to economic gains.

Neoliberalists R. Keohane and J. Nye equally created two concepts that apply to this study case: sensibility and vulnerability. It is considered a part of the concept of interdependence. Sensitivity “involves degrees of responsiveness within a policy framework- how quickly do changes in one country bring costly changes in another, and how great are the costly effects.” Vulnerability is “the relative availability and costliness of the alternatives that various actors face”. In other words, it implies that sensibility is the pressure that various state actors face as the results of others' actions whilst vulnerability is how open many options there are for them to change the process and framework of their own structure for their own benefit and to suit their own needs. Once more, neoliberalism shows to apply itself to this study case, as much of Afghanistan's economic future and security depends on the changes such projects can bring to the country. The flexibility it will have within these frameworks and how Afghanistan can adapt to these projects so that they remain at its own interest and suits its own economic, political and security needs too.

CHAPTER 2: Integration and infrastructure projects involving Afghanistan

2.1 SAARC: History of creation and key problems of cooperation

SAARC -short for the South Asian Association for Region Cooperation - was established on 8 December 1985 after the signing of the SAARC Charter SAARC. Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. 8 December 1985. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://saarc-sec.org/digital_library/detail_menu/saarc-charter-provisional-rules-of-procedure

(Date of access 02.03.2019), in Dhaka. The Secretariat of the Association was set up on 17 January 1987, in Kathmandu. It involves eight Member States namely, Afghanistan who joined in 2007, India, Bhutan, Maldives, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. SAARC: About SAARC. Edited in 2018. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://saarc-sec.org/about-saarc . (Date of access: 29.03.2019)

The SAARC Charter outlines the association's objectives, which are to promote the welfare of South Asians and to improve their overall quality of life. The acceleration of economic growth and social progress as well as the cultural development of the region should provide all people the opportunity to have a better standard of living and to live in dignity so that they can realize their full potentials. The promotion of collective self-reliance and the strengthening of regional bonds is one of the highlights of the Charter, which speaks about mutual trust, understanding an appreciation of one another's strengths and issues. The technical and scientific fields should be stimulated and reinforced through cooperation between developing countries and that should make its appearance in the form of international forums on matters of common interest. There should equally be cooperation in international and regional organizations to fulfill mutual aims. In other words, SAARC has aimed to improve connectivity by encouraging regional economic integration.

From 1985 to 2011, SAARC summits were held in SAARC member countries nearly every year, occasionally with an interval of two or three years. Issues such as terrorism, the global food crisis, climate change, tourism, poverty, and drug abuse were brought to the table. However, by 2011 a summit supposed to be held was interrupted and delayed until 2014. SAARC started showing signs of stagnation. Pillai, M. B. A Biannual Journal of South Asian Studies. // Society for South Asian Studies. January-June 2013. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.pondiuni.edu.in/sites/default/files/IJSAS-041213.pdf . (Date of access: 15.05.2019)

During the Opening Session of the Council of Ministers held in Kathmandu on the 25^th of November in 2014, a study conducted by the ADB and mandated by SAARC Leaders on request of the SAARC Secretariat was launched. SAARC: Economic Trade and Finance. Economic and Financial Cooperation. Edited in 2018. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://saarc-sec.org/areas_of_cooperation/area_detail/economic-trade-and-finance/click-for-details_7 . (Date of access: 0.03.2019) The study recommended the prioritization of different implementations that were only to be executed after a Meeting of representatives of Commerce and Finance Ministries on Regional Economic Integration Study in Goa, India on the 14-15^th of April in 2015, and in Male in the Maldives on the 27-28^th of January 2016. Ibid. These implementations included measures such as the reduction or removal of Non-Tariff Barriers and Para-Tariff Barriers, Energy Cooperation, Trade Facilitation Measures and the improvement of connectivity, be it aerial, maritime, roads or railways. In other words, SAARC agreed there was a need for facilitation and improvement in regional infrastructure in order to strengthen economic ties between the member countries.

After the first SAARC-ADB meeting, it was agreed upon that action be taken by the forthcoming Tenth Meeting of SAFTA Committee of Experts however, these meetings have not been held so far. After the second SAARC-ADB Special Meeting held in the Maldives in 2016, different timelines were proposed but it was also said several SAARC Mechanisms are already engaged in activities which would encourage further regional economic integration such as SAARC Finance Ministers and Secretaries SAFTA [South Asian Free Trade Area] SAARC. Agreement on South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). 6 January 2004. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://saarc-sec.org/digital_library/detail_menu/agreement-on-south-asian-free-trade-area-safta . (Date of access: 03.04.2019) Ministerial Council comprising SAARC Commerce Ministers and meeting organized by SARSO [South Asian Regional Standards Organization] and SARCO [SAARC Arbitration Council]. These meetings supposedly contribute to the implementation of better regional infrastructure and connectivity as well as other measures proposed in the conducted study. The Third SAARC-ADB Special Meeting on Regional Economic Integration Study (Phase-II) was held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 12-13^th of April in 2017. SAARC Summit Cancelled Katehon Think-tank. 29 August 2016. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://katehon.com/agenda/saarc-summit-canceled . (Date of access: 11.01.2019) “Transport Connectivity” was the main theme of the meeting during which some important issues concerning the Role of Transport Connectivity in Trade Facilitation for moving towards South Asian Economic Union (SAEU) were discussed.

Despite all of this, summits were delayed or cancelled due to tensions between SAARC member states. In 2016, Afghanistan, India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh refused to participate due to high-level terrorist threats by Pakistan. Despite it being contradicting to its initial aim, SAARC has always put out the already tense relations between India and Pakistan out in the open. Following a sharp deterioration after a terrorist attack on the military base in Uri, whose attackers infiltrated India from Pakistan; New Delhi became even more defensive and accused Pakistan of being a terrorist state. More than once, India has not refrained from criticizing Pakistan in the context of SAARC. The Indian Foreign Ministry issued a statement explaining the country's position on this issue. "The increase in cross-border terrorism in the region and the growing interference in the internal affairs of member states by one of the countries has created conditions that are not conducive to the success of the summit," - the statement reads. Ibid.

To Afghanistan, joining SAARC seemed an important step. After the collapse of the Taliban regime and the formation of transitional government in Afghanistan, it was Afghanistan's foreign policy priority and its indulgence in regionalism to promote cordial relations with South Asian countries. Whilst it is very important for Afghanistan to improve relations with SAARC, the organization's member countries have equally much to gain from cooperating with Afghanistan. In 2007, during the 14^th summit of SAARC held in New Delhi, Afghanistan officially became member of the organization. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) // NTI: Nuclear Threat Initiative, 26 October 2011. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/south-asian-association-regional-cooperation-saarc/ . (Date of access: 02.02.2019) During the summit, both rivaling India and Pakistan showed their grand interest and warm welcome to Afghanistan as a new member of SAARC. Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai used to participate to SAARC summits even before Afghanistan became a member, showing the government's desire to join. During the 2014 summit, Karzai stated that Afghanistan needs regional cooperation for economic and social development and the establishment of peace and stability and that, in turn, the region needs a peaceful Afghanistan for regional peace and stability. Ibid

Poverty, terrorism, illiteracy and a lack of education are only a few of the issues that require Afghanistan and South Asia to cooperate on finding a common strategy. The election of Ashraf Ghani (2014) has been marked by the demonstration of a great interest in rebuilding amicable relations with regional states for peace and stability in Afghanistan. When A. Ghani led the 2014 SAARC summit in Kathmandu, Nepal, his speech put noticeable emphasis on regional integration and economic cooperation. The Afghan president stated that he will never permit Afghanistan to turn into a war zone, that its soil will never be used against others and there will be no place for proxy wars. Ibid In other words, Afghanistan is ready for cooperation, but on its own terms.

However, SAARC is generally acknowledged as a failure for a number of reasons. Primarily, because there has been a tremendous lack of internal trade as a consequent of corruption issues, but mostly because of mistrust. Long lasting territorial disputes over the Kashmir region, the Sir Creek, the Siachin glaciers, the Kali River and the Durand line have prevented the dialogue between SAARC member states from progressing. Competition for the same commodities -mostly agricultural- has created animosity and rivalry rather than encouraged further cooperation. The same can be said about the refugee crisis and repatriation as Nepal has been hosting Bhutanese refugees, Indian Bengalis and Pakistan Afghan refugees during the Soviet presence in 1979. Furthermore, the very basis of SAARC, which is the SAARC Charter, cancels its own effectiveness out. Indeed, article 10 of the SAARC Charter stipulates, “bilateral and contentious issues shall be excluded from the deliberations” which practically makes the whole Charter unavailing. SAARC. Charter of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. 8 December 1985. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://saarc-sec.org/digital_library/detail_menu/saarc-charter-provisional-rules-of-procedure

(Date of access 02.03.2019)

Perhaps the largest contributor to SAARC's failure would be India. India has failed, as the largest bloc of the organization, to take the role of a leader such as leading countries would in NATO or the EU, for example. Due to the India-Pakistan rivalry, a duality has taken shape within the SAARC community and has inevitably prevent progress and unity. Issues such as cross border terrorism between India and Pakistan and Indian hegemony on Pakistani waters (the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960) Ministry of External Affairs: Government of India. Treaty between the Government of India and the Government of Pakistan Concerning the Most Complete and Satisfactory Utilization of the Waters of the Indus System of Rivers. 16 September 1960. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6439/Indus . (Date of access: 24.12.2018) as well as an overall fear for Indian dominance have heavily overshadowed SAARC. In fact, recent events have proven once more how much the India-Pakistan rivalry negatively affects SAARC. November 30^th, 2018, the Indian Foreign Office declined the invitation to attend the SAARC Summit in Pakistan, which is to be held in 2019. The invitation in question was sent by the Government of Pakistan to Indian Prime Minister N. Modi. This was reported by the Indian news publication Bhaskar with reference to the Indian Foreign Ministry. REGNUM. Индия назвала попытку Пакистана пригласить Моди на саммит СААРК уловкой. 30 ноября 2018. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://regnum.ru/news/2529135.html (Date of access: 02.05.2019) The Indian Foreign Ministry considered the invitation merely a stratagem for Pakistan leadership to earn sympathy or “political points”. Whilst the constituent documents of SAARC stipulate such invitations can only be sent after the specific date of the summit has been unanimously approved by all member countries of SAARC, such a date has not been picked yet. Whether one considers it provocation from Pakistan's side or bad will from India's side, the tension nevertheless jeopardizes SAARC's future and harms the very essence of what the integration group is aiming at. Moreover, India is not to enthusiastic about China an observer in SAARC. It believes that China has the desire to build an economic dependence between SAARC members and China rather than wanting to be part of a balanced regional structure. Pillai, M. B. A Biannual Journal of South Asian Studies. // Society for South Asian Studies. January-June 2013. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.pondiuni.edu.in/sites/default/files/IJSAS-041213.pdf . (Date of access: 15.05.2019) However, though India would have the capacity to breathe new life into SAARC, it has failed to do so. What can be retained from SAARC's failure is that the region is still beset with unresolved issues that hinder progress and discourage cooperative relations. Regardless of SAARC not having proven itself entirely effective, Afghanistan can still benefit from this cooperation and even become a key player in the India-Pakistan peace process as economic interest could finally prevail.

Afghanistan may have put much hope in joining SAARC and cooperating with South Asia, as there are very few regional organizations and treaties that unite the five Central Asian, and none of them includes Afghanistan. One organization that can be counted amongst those very few would be CAEC [Central Asian Economic Community], which started off as CAU [Central Asian Union] in 1994, that includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The organization signed the Treaty on the Formation of an Integrated Economic Space (IES), which was joined in 1998 by post-civil war Tajikistan. Regretfully, the CAEC result of cooperation were also much lower than anticipated, as there is a tendency for former Soviet republic to become more distant and unwilling to develop joint strategies. This is nevertheless debatable as in 2002, the four members tries to re-dynamise the organization by transforming it into CACO [Central Asian Cooperation Organization]. CACO had the goal to form and integrate economic space and coordinate foreign policy, especially in relation to Afghanistan. Ларуэль М., Пейруз С. Региональные организации в Центральной Азии: характеристики взаимодействий, дилеммы эффективности // Университет Центральной Азии. Доклад № 10, 2013. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.ucentralasia.org/Content/Downloads/UCA-IPPA-WP-10-RegionalOrganizations-Rus.pdf . (Date of access: 18.03.2019) Here also, once more, success has not been forthcoming. By 2005, CACO merged into EurAsEC [Eurasian Economic Community]Eurasian Economic Commission. Library of Eurasian Integration. Eurasian Economic Integration: Facts and Figures.2016. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/Documents/Брошюра%20Цифры%20и%20факты%20ит%20(Англ).pdf (Date of access: 02.04.2019) and was de facto dissolved with Russia's accession. Former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarybaev made a new proposal in 2007 for a new Central Asian Union, but this proposal was rejected by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Consequently, it were only the president of Kazakshtan and the president of Kyrgyzstan who signed the agreement establishing an International Supreme Council between their two states.Ларуэль М., Пейруз С. Региональные организации в Центральной Азии: характеристики взаимодействий, дилеммы эффективности // Университет Центральной Азии. Доклад № 10, 2013. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.ucentralasia.org/Content/Downloads/UCA-IPPA-WP-10-RegionalOrganizations-Rus.pdf . (Date of access: 18.03.2019)

What can be concluded from Afghanistan's involvement in SAARC, a regional integration organization, is that the initiative have shown the country's desire for regional economic integration and connectivity. For a number of factors, this has not yet been achieved yet. However, a new opportunity for Afghanistan has appeared from a more unexpected corner. China's recent take on going global that has taken the form of the well-known One Belt One Road initiative (BRI) has set its eye on Afghanistan. Though Beijing has not formally announced its intentions to add Afghanistan to the BRI trajectory, its actions have displayed its desire to do so. Though it is impossible to make any premature predictions on the benefits that China's involvements in Afghanistan could have on both the country and region, it seems an attempt to bring long-term benefits on a regional level.

2.2 One Belt One Road : opportunities and risks for Afghanistan

It is debatable whether China is benefitting the most from the 9/11 attack and the Iraq and Afghanistan war. Nevertheless, the War on terrorism and all the military commitments related to the terrorism issue have undoubtedly distracted two successive U.S. presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, from preparing consistent responses to China's quick rise to becoming Asia's primary power. Meanwhile China has in both Iraq and Afghanistan been what could be called a consummate “free rider” using the U.S. -and consequently NATO-provision of security to start heavily investing in the country's natural resources such as oil. The rise of China however, does not exclusively explain itself simply by the lack of attention the U.S. attributed to it during the past decades, but it is certainly an important factor to recall.

China's most recent way of expressing its desire of going global has been the BRI initiative, an ambitious project that has left the world wondering what exactly are China's motives. “Spanning more than 68 countries and encompassing 4.4 billion people and up to 40 percent of the global GDP, China's “One Belt, One Road” project is not short on ambition” BBC: Is China a brake on Africa's progress? 3 December 2015. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.bbc.com/new/business-342338 . (Date of access: 26 December 2018) . The project is full of promises that are meant to benefit, one is made to believe, the entire world and lift millions and millions out of poverty Ibid. Though many interesting propositions have been made in the framework of BRI, it is still a challenging task to exactly explain what the plan consist of as it has taken many different shapes and adaptations according to the many different environments it has grown into. Skepticals and critics have blamed the project of being tainted with “Chinese imperialism”, a project of power expansion and “neocolonialism” disguised in promises, ideology and utopia. BRI enthusiasts see long-term benefits for those involved in the project who will benefit from a win-win dynamic and regional connectivity.

Initially BRI was supposed to promote and join a continental economic belt -of which a major part is of what is known as the Ancient Silk Road- as well as a maritime trajectory from Asia to Europe and a railway leading from Eastern China to London BBC: Is China a brake on Africa's progress? 3 December 2015. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.bbc.com/new/business-342338 . (Date of access: 26 December 2018). Now that the project has been put into action, China's plans have kept on changing and becoming increasingly more ambitious. Chinese state media claims that the BRI initiative will help start-ups in Dubai, nuclear power centrals, global poverty reduction, currency trading, Polish orchards, Australian hotels, Middle East peace, Xinjiang's medical industry, and in the end; the whole world will somehow greatly benefit from itIbid. .

Whether one is skeptical or supportive of BRI, there is no denying that the project has made China a key player in many global issues of importance. Now an essential component of the global economy scenery, many countries have put China on top of their foreign affairs priority list. Therefore, it is not astonishing that Beijing invests such vast amounts of money into BRI and intends to further do so. Though it is rather difficult to give the exact amount of investment China has put into BRI. In fact, popular estimates for China's investment in BRI range from $1 trillion to $8 trillion, which is tremendously imprecise. Hillman, J. E. How Big is China's Belt and Road? // Center for Strategic and International Studies: 3 April 2018. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road . (Date of access: 16.04.2019) This includes investments in ports, roads, other types of infrastructure, but also trade deals and transportation agreements. BRI also includes people-to-people ties such as tourism, cultural exchanges and education. Therefore, it is very hard to have a clear idea of the exact amount that has been invested in BRI, as it is difficult to evaluate all of its economic implications. The level of participation per involved country is equally challenging to measure. Almost 70 countries have joined the initiative, but the level of Chinese investments vary grandly per country; Pakistan has received over $60 billion whilst South Korea has not participated in any BRI projects since it joined. As for India, though being publically very critical about BRI, it has attracted Chinese investments such as the industrial park in Gujarat that would be easily branded as a BRI project elsewhere. Hillman, J. E. How Big is China's Belt and Road? // Center for Strategic and International Studies: 3 April 2018. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road . (Date of access: 16.04.2019) In other words, being part of BRI is not obligatory to do business with China, nor is it guaranteed there will be business with China once joining BRI.