Afghanistan in Transnational Infrastructural Projects of Central and South Asia

After targeting five key projects that involve Afghanistan, regional actors and extra-regional actors, the general common interest for regional connectivity and an eventual complex interconnectivity is encouraging to observe. There seems to be a strong common desire to connect to one another, strengthen economic ties and cooperate on issues that affect or could eventually affect the entire region.

Yet, a deeper look into these transnational infrastructural projects has also shown that each state involved has its own motives. Naturally, each state will only engage in activities that are at its own benefit and for the improvement of their own economy and security. It seems that many of these projects do indeed wish to stimulate interconnectivity, regretfully often by excluding a certain party or in reaction of the growing capacity of a certain state and the wish to contain it. Pakistan is worried about India's influence on Afghanistan, India is worried about China's influence and the increasingly strong ties between China and Pakistan, and China is not too fond either of seeing India strengthening ties with Afghanistan. As for Iran, it would rather not have the U.S. performing any economic activities nearby. The question that remains is whether the involved states will let their own interests and motives prevail over the interest of Afghanistan and the common regional interest. This is rather unpredictable and as a great number of variables are involved, it is a hardy task to make any predictions including what this could mean for Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, it depends of Afghanistan's own attitude toward this unavoidable tendency: it will have to measure its degree of responsiveness within the policy framework of the projects it is involved with and measure the benefits it can receive from its involvement. Afghanistan should be aware of its vulnerability and the pressure that other states can apply on it within the framework of infrastructural projects. In other words, Afghanistan should change the process and the framework for it to suit their own needs for a long-term economic growth and regional political stability. The flexibility that Afghanistan will have or allow itself to take within the framework of infrastructural projects is how the long-term benefits of these projects to the country can be measured.

To ensure Afghanistan can truly enjoy from the benefits Central and South Asian infrastructural projects offer, there will be a need for drastic internal changes in the security sphere. If the country is not in measure to guarantee a minimum of security in the context of these projects, current investments will be lost and interest will wear off. Corruption, terrorism and drug-trafficking are crimes that are closely connected to one another. If there is corruption, there is no guarantee where investments are put into and how they are spent. As much can be said about terrorism, which additionally means there is no guarantee that transported stock arrives safely or complete. As for drug trafficking -an economic activity of which a great part finances terrorism- there is no care for having good railways and roads facilitating illicit and harmful activities that jeopardize regional security.

Beijing, for instance, wishes to cooperate with Afghanistan on security issues as these affect China directly. Though China has confirmed multiple times it does not wish to establish any physical military presence in Afghanistan and remains true to its non-interference policy, it remains in Afghanistan's own interest to tackle the security issue from within. Foreign military presence has never shown itself to be a success in the country and China can, if it stays true to its non-interference policy, only offer support. As security issues are increasing, Afghanistan has every reason to act effectively and quickly if it wishes to engage in transnational infrastructural projects.

It is very unlikely that Afghanistan can count on any military aid from the U.S. in a near future. D. Trump has made no clear statement on this subject, but seems disinterested in engaging troops in Afghanistan. As for Russia, its traditional role of responsibility for security in Central Asia does not guarantee its implication with Afghanistan. It is even more unlikely to see any cooperation between Russia and the U.S. abroad and in Central Asia. Since the last U.S. elections, it is very unclear what the terms of agreement between the U.S. and Russia are within the post-soviet space. In addition, it would be a hardy task for Russia to increase its involvement in the region, as Saudi Arabia and Qatar tend to hinder Iran and Russia by financing ISIS and Al-Qaeda to extend Middle East conflicts to Central Asia. Therefore, Afghanistan cannot count on any military support from both the U.S. and Russia in a nearby future.

What can be deduced from this research is that Afghanistan needs to undergo many internal changes within its political and security sphere for the country to be truly ready and capable of benefitting from transnational infrastructure. The country must tackle terrorism and drug trafficking and corruption as one problem as these issue are strongly intertwined and heavily dependent of one another. If Afghanistan does not wish to become the territory of dispute of foreign powers, it needs a certain strength and stability that allows it to put its own terms at front and mold the framework of projects that occur within its own territory. If Afghanistan becomes once more a tool for foreign powers to achieve their own agenda, there are no long-term benefits for the country. Infrastructure requires safety and maintenance to be truly beneficial. This means Afghanistan needs important changes on the security level, and qualified expertise in the country to sustain the quality and effectiveness of road, railways and other infrastructure without relying on foreign aid in the future.

Complex interdependence is meant to create unbreakable relations between states. The interconnectivity implies that Afghanistan and regional actors should be connected in such a way that the destruction of those ties would be of severe damage to all states and therefore avoided at all costs. This would eventually create an ideal, balanced and peaceful political climate in Afghanistan, Central Asia and South Asia. Afghanistan remains at risk of being in a position of asymmetric interdependence, caused by its vulnerability and current incapacity to tackle its growing security issues that irrupt into different spheres and take worrying, unmeasurable proportions. Asymmetric interdependence will only cause more vulnerability, which consequently only can mean there is no such thing as interdependence in place.

Afghanistan is still a very vulnerable state. As long as it has not resolved its internal issues, foreign aid and transnational projects from foreign sources remain still foreign intervention to which Afghanistan is not the triumphant in the balance of power and persuasion. Therefore, extreme caution is needed when involving in transnational infrastructural projects.

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