Агрессия и агрессивное поведение: в поисках единой теории преступности

На сегодняшний день понятно, что предсказание поведения невозможно, однако это не значит, что не следует пытаться. С 1960 по 1980 гг. те, кто занимался изучением хаоса считались маргиналами в сфере науки: их доклады отказывались слушать, их проекты не финансировались, а сами они были на гране увольнения и чудом имели доступ к университетским лабораториям.

На сегодняшний день, программирование, анализ больших данных (Big Data) открывает для нас новые неизведанные горизонты в сфере моделирования, поэтому представляется необходимым, чтобы криминологи совмещали юридическое образование не только с биологическим образованием (как для критического анализа результатов проведенных клинических испытаний, так и для правильной реализации собственных исследований), но и со знанием математических методов и дискретной математики, математического аппарата теории хаоса, а также навыка программирования, поскольку для дальнейшего успешного прогнозирования используются алгоритмы статистического анализа данных и математического моделирования.

Учитывая, что сегодня развитие технологий не позволяет нам моделировать самые сложные биологические процессы, такие как поведение, даже в пределах одного индивидуума, судя по экспоненциальному развитию технологий и научных методов в обозримом будущем, это, вероятно, будет возможно, что в свою очередь указывает на необходимость знания компьютерных алгоритмов моделирования, машинного обучения и умения работать с «большими данными».

Научный метод не дает 100 % результата, однако мы в принципе вряд ли можем рассчитывать на такой результат в попытках познания окружающей среды и уж тем более самих себя. Конечно, модельность науки не означает ее неправоту или то, что научный метод не надежен. С каждым разом мы все больше приближаемся к истине, однако эта погоня сродни апории Зенона, где Ахиллес так никогда и не догонит черепаху.

По мнению автора научный метод - единственный правильный и возможный подход к изучению агрессии, преступности и других связанных с этим феноменов. Безусловно при неправильном подходе он может быть использован скорее во зло, лженаучно, нежели во благо. Без знания основ научного метода любое исследование превращается в манипуляцию сомнительными фактами, полными предрассудков и когнитивных ошибок.

Поэтому несмотря на всю оптимистичность автора по поводу использования новейших технологий, необходимо помнить, что главное орудие науки - научный метод, который прежде всего включает в себя скепсис, теорию вероятностей и математическую статистику.

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